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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. OSCAR GLORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with KASI FARASI second and PRESIDENT'S CHOICE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite PRESIDENT'S CHOICE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 OSCAR GLORY Wire to wire V 1.34.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · F C Lor 1 4.7 1/2
2 8 KASI FARASI Closed strongly R Maia · C H Yip 3 18.0 1/2
3 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE L Ferraris · C W Chang 2 4.1 3/4
4 1 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu 5 8.6 3
5 5 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 10 7.2 3-1/4
6 7 SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 34.0 3-1/4
7 12 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes 11 9.9 5-3/4
8 4 ROCKPAPERSCISSORS CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 8 5.7 6-1/2
9 13 YOUNG EXPLORER CP-/B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 79.0 7-1/4
10 11 FLYING MIGHTY B/TT H T Mo · D J Hall 9 35.0 8
11 2 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Closed strongly H2/XB2 C L Chau · Y S Tsui 12 74.0 8-3/4
12 10 FIERY FLYING H- K C Leung · A T Millard 4 15.0 8-3/4
13 9 FOREVER GLORIOUS TT A Hamelin · K W Lui 13 34.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OSCAR GLORY2. KASI FARASI+0.5L3. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+0.75L4. DARCI JOY+3L5. TURQUOISE ALPHA+3.25L6. SMOOTHIES+3.25L7. BRIGHT KID+5.75L8. ROCKPAPERSCISSORS+6.5L9. YOUNG EXPLORER+7.25L10. FLYING MIGHTY+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (20.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 OSCAR GLORY 20.7% 4.84 1
2 4 ROCKPAPERSCISSORS 17.3% 5.79 8
3 6 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 12.6% 7.95 3
4 1 DARCI JOY 9.6% 10.46 4
5 12 BRIGHT KID 8.0% 12.58 7
6 5 TURQUOISE ALPHA 7.4% 13.60 5
7 10 FIERY FLYING 5.3% 18.74 12
8 8 KASI FARASI 5.2% 19.14 2
9 11 FLYING MIGHTY 4.6% 21.75 10
10 7 SMOOTHIES 3.4% 29.17 6
11 2 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 3.1% 31.97 11
12 9 FOREVER GLORIOUS 1.9% 52.00 13
13 13 YOUNG EXPLORER 1.0% 102.71 9
OSCAR GLORY — wonROCKPAPERSCISSORSPRESIDENT'S CHOICEDARCI JOYBRIGHT KIDTURQUOISE ALPHAFIERY FLYINGKASI FARASIFLYING MIGHTYSMOOTHIESARTHUR'S KINGDOMFOREVER GLORIOUSYOUNG EXPLORER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 47.5

PLACE

3 16.5

6 17

8 48.5

QUINELLA

3,8 428

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 35

3,8 105.5

6,8 115

FORECAST

3,8 702

TIERCE

3,8,6 2,879

TRIO

3,6,8 505

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 670

QUARTET

3,8,6,1 15,986

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE

11/3 528.5

11/8 241