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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 14:02

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY TYCOON, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with ONE VOICE second and SNOWALOT third. The 2.2 favourite ONE VOICE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BEAUTY TYCOON H1/P1 1.08.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 1 4.5 1-1/4
2 7 ONE VOICE TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 2.2 1-1/4
3 10 SNOWALOT B- L Currie · D A Hayes 11 16.0 2-3/4
4 5 SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 2 7.1 4-1/4
5 6 MARADO B L Hewitson · P C Ng 4 17.0 5
6 1 SOARING TOWER K C Leung · W Y So 8 15.0 5-1/2
7 9 GLORY BO BO B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 10 11.0 7-1/2
8 11 SON PAK FU BO C L Chau · T P Yung 5 34.0 8
9 12 WIN WIN CHARITY XB/TT A Hamelin · K W Lui 9 66.0 10-1/4
10 3 CHARMING STEED TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 6 26.0 11-1/4
11 4 WE ARE HERO B M F Poon · K L Man 7 16.0 12-1/4
0 GOOD RUNNER Z Purton · D J Hall
8 MIRACULOUS HONOUR H W Lai · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY TYCOON2. ONE VOICE+1.25L3. SNOWALOT+2.75L4. SUCCESS FIGHTER+4.25L5. MARADO+5L6. SOARING TOWER+5.5L7. GLORY BO BO+7.5L8. SON PAK FU+8L9. WIN WIN CHARITY+10.25L10. CHARMING STEED+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ONE VOICE (35.6%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY TYCOON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 ONE VOICE 35.6% 2.81 2
2 2 BEAUTY TYCOON 16.6% 6.02 1
3 5 SUCCESS FIGHTER 8.4% 11.90 4
4 4 WE ARE HERO 7.3% 13.76 11
5 9 GLORY BO BO 7.1% 14.09 7
6 3 CHARMING STEED 6.0% 16.80 10
7 6 MARADO 5.4% 18.57 5
8 11 SON PAK FU 4.3% 23.31 8
9 10 SNOWALOT 4.2% 24.00 3
10 1 SOARING TOWER 3.6% 28.02 6
11 12 WIN WIN CHARITY 1.6% 61.82 9
ONE VOICEBEAUTY TYCOON — wonSUCCESS FIGHTERWE ARE HEROGLORY BO BOCHARMING STEEDMARADOSON PAK FUSNOWALOTSOARING TOWERWIN WIN CHARITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 45.5

PLACE

2 16

7 11

10 47.5

QUINELLA

2,7 47

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 22

2,10 103

7,10 71

FORECAST

2,7 119

TIERCE

2,7,10 982

TRIO

2,7,10 224

FIRST 4

2,5,7,10 247

QUARTET

2,7,10,5 4,744

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/2 102.5

5/7,8 10.5

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2

A3