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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING VICTORY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by L Ho, won by 1-1/4, with HORSESAIN BOLT second and TEMPEST EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H 1.21.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · L Ho 3 5.5 1-1/4
2 14 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 9.7 1-1/4
3 6 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · J Size 1 5.9 1-1/2
4 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 6.2 2-1/4
5 5 PARTERRE A Badel · A T Millard 2 9.7 2-1/2
6 12 LUCKY GOLD H-/B C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 21.0 4-1/2
7 13 ALL RICHES Led early CP M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 6.4 4-1/2
8 2 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 14 11.0 4-1/2
9 7 MASSIVE ACTION V K C Leung · F C Lor 13 14.0 5-1/4
10 10 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 44.0 5-1/4
11 3 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly CP/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 12 44.0 6
12 9 BILLIONAIRE SECRET XB L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 43.0 6-1/4
13 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS P-/XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 7 24.0 6-1/2
14 8 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP H Bentley · F C Lor 6 35.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING VICTORY2. HORSESAIN BOLT+1.25L3. TEMPEST EXPRESS+1.5L4. CIRCUIT STELLAR+2.25L5. PARTERRE+2.5L6. LUCKY GOLD+4.5L7. ALL RICHES+4.5L8. MALDIVES+4.5L9. MASSIVE ACTION+5.25L10. DRAGON DELIGHT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PARTERRE (15.2%) finished 5th — the winner AMAZING VICTORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 PARTERRE 15.2% 6.57 5
2 2 MALDIVES 12.2% 8.19 8
3 11 AMAZING VICTORY 12.1% 8.25 1
4 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR 9.7% 10.36 4
5 13 ALL RICHES 9.0% 11.17 7
6 12 LUCKY GOLD 7.0% 14.37 6
7 3 ROYAL BOMB 6.4% 15.51 11
8 7 MASSIVE ACTION 6.2% 16.25 9
9 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS 5.3% 18.95 13
10 6 TEMPEST EXPRESS 4.6% 21.72 3
11 14 HORSESAIN BOLT 4.0% 24.93 2
12 8 CHEVALIER PRINCE 3.3% 30.15 14
13 9 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 3.0% 33.89 12
14 10 DRAGON DELIGHT 2.1% 47.42 10
PARTERREMALDIVESAMAZING VICTORY — wonCIRCUIT STELLARALL RICHESLUCKY GOLDROYAL BOMBMASSIVE ACTIONAMAZING ONE PLUSTEMPEST EXPRESSHORSESAIN BOLTCHEVALIER PRINCEBILLIONAIRE SECRETDRAGON DELIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 55.5

PLACE

6 20

11 21

14 30.5

QUINELLA

11,14 289.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 81.5

6,14 146.5

11,14 95

FORECAST

11,14 802

TIERCE

11,14,6 4,022

TRIO

6,11,14 555

FIRST 4

1,6,11,14 698

QUARTET

11,14,6,1 20,708

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 23.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,7/6,11,14 158,395

9TH DOUBLE

7/11 769.5

7/14 215

SIX UP

3,8/5,10/4,6/1,2/1,7/11,14 1,648

3/10/4/1/7/11 1,171,262

1 [F C Lor]

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

1/7/11 1,925

1/7/14 605