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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BIG ME TT1 0.56.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · C Fownes 6 2.8 1-1/4
2 0 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 6.8 1-1/4
3 0 CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 5.4 1-1/4
4 0 NOBLE ONE H Z Purton · K W Lui 11 8.8 2-1/4
5 0 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 23.0 2-1/4
6 0 GLENEALY GENERALS XB/B2 R Maia · C H Yip 12 10.0 3-1/4
7 0 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 16.0 4
8 0 ONE FOR ALL CP-/B1/TT A Badel · R Gibson 5 37.0 4-1/4
9 0 VANTASTIC CHOICE A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 27.0 4-1/2
10 0 UNITED WE STAND B/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 7 7.5 4-3/4
11 0 BELL OF HAPPINESS B H N Wong · C W Chang 2 114.0 8-3/4
12 0 PERFECT ROCK K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 59.0 10

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BIG ME, ridden by L Currie and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with FLYING HIGH second and CHEVAL VALIANT third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BIG ME—2. FLYING HIGH+1.25L3. CHEVAL VALIANT+1.25L4. NOBLE ONE+2.25L5. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+2.25L6. GLENEALY GENERALS+3.25L7. CIRCUIT SEVEN+4L8. ONE FOR ALL+4.25L9. VANTASTIC CHOICE+4.5L10. UNITED WE STAND+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CHEVAL VALIANT (29.1%) finished 3rd — the winner BIG ME was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHEVAL VALIANT 29.1% 3.43 3
2 0 UNITED WE STAND 12.1% 8.28 10
3 0 NOBLE ONE 9.0% 11.12 4
4 0 FLYING HIGH 8.7% 11.52 2
5 0 CIRCUIT SEVEN 8.0% 12.48 7
6 0 ONE FOR ALL 7.9% 12.73 8
7 0 GLENEALY GENERALS 7.4% 13.47 6
8 0 BIG ME 5.2% 19.22 1
9 0 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 5.0% 20.09 5
10 0 PERFECT ROCK 3.4% 29.35 12
11 0 VANTASTIC CHOICE 3.2% 31.57 9
12 0 BELL OF HAPPINESS 1.0% 95.64 11
CHEVAL VALIANTUNITED WE STANDNOBLE ONEFLYING HIGHCIRCUIT SEVENONE FOR ALLGLENEALY GENERALSBIG ME — wonSPARKLING DOLPHINPERFECT ROCKVANTASTIC CHOICEBELL OF HAPPINESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 28.5

PLACE

2 20

5 14

11 24

QUINELLA

5,11 117

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 41

2,11 67.5

5,11 47.5

FORECAST

5,11 215

TIERCE

5,11,2 789

TRIO

2,5,11 176

FIRST 4

2,4,5,11 283

QUARTET

5,11,2,4 4,459

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/5 884

7/11 205.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 20

A3 —