Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 16:08

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WEALTHY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with CORDYCEPS SIX second and SKY FIELD third. The 1.9 favourite CORDYCEPS SIX finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.05

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	SUPER WEALTHY CP2 0.56.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	7	130 lb	4.0	N
2	6	CORDYCEPS SIX B A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	1	123 lb	1.9	N
3	1	SKY FIELD H-/TT L Currie · C Fownes	L Currie	C Fownes	5	135 lb	19.0	1-1/2
4	3	LUCKY PATCH H/V L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	3	132 lb	11.0	2-1/4
5	5	MASTER EIGHT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	6	126 lb	6.5	2-1/4
6	2	STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	4	135 lb	11.0	2-3/4
7	7	HARMONY AND RICH L Hewitson · Y S Tsui	L Hewitson	Y S Tsui	2	118 lb	16.0	3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CORDYCEPS SIX (40.1%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER WEALTHY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	CORDYCEPS SIX	40.1%	2.49	2	1.9
2	4	SUPER WEALTHY	20.5%	4.89	1	4.0
3	3	LUCKY PATCH	13.9%	7.22	4	11.0
4	5	MASTER EIGHT	9.3%	10.73	5	6.5
5	1	SKY FIELD	8.2%	12.20	3	19.0
6	2	STRONGER	5.9%	16.92	6	11.0
7	7	HARMONY AND RICH	2.1%	46.94	7	16.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 40

PLACE

1 33.5

4 13.5

6 11.5

QUINELLA

4,6 36

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 75

1,6 60.5

4,6 17

FORECAST

4,6 97

TIERCE

4,6,1 622

TRIO

1,4,6 135

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 181

QUARTET

4,6,1,3 2,794

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,10/1,4,6 6,237

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 13

6TH DOUBLE

10/4 773.5

10/6 66

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