Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 16:43
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ORIENTAL SMOKE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with SUPER FORTUNE second and VILLA FIONN third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B 1.09.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 2 | 2.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 7.9 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | VILLA FIONN B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 61.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | PHOENIX LIGHT H A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | PINS PRINCE H/P/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SAKEWIN M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 3.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | STAR BRITE CP/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 3 | 19.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | TELECOM SPEED L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 11 | 73.0 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | MR VALIANT XB L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 5 | 25.0 | 12 |
| 10 | 5 | SUPER TEN SR-/B2/TT R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 6 | 57.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | REVE PARISIEN M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 7 | 10.0 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 35.6% | 2.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SAKEWIN | 21.4% | 4.68 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | REVE PARISIEN | 9.5% | 10.48 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | PHOENIX LIGHT | 4.8% | 20.67 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | PINS PRINCE | 3.9% | 25.48 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | MR VALIANT | 3.5% | 28.83 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPER TEN | 3.3% | 30.42 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | STAR BRITE | 2.6% | 37.83 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | VILLA FIONN | 2.5% | 40.27 | 3 |
| 11 | 10 | TELECOM SPEED | 1.8% | 56.61 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 21.5
PLACE
1 11
2 22.5
11 98.5
QUINELLA
1,2 78.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 32
1,11 174
2,11 448
FORECAST
1,2 110
TIERCE
1,2,11 2,727
TRIO
1,2,11 974
FIRST 4
1,2,7,11 2,879
QUARTET
1,2,11,7 24,845
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 13.5
7TH DOUBLE
4/1 103
4/2 60.5