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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT PEACH, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with COMPASSION SPIRIT second and LIFELINE VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite COMPASSION SPIRIT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.21.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · A S Cruz 3 10.0 HD
2 2 COMPASSION SPIRIT B Z Purton · K L Man 1 3.9 HD
3 7 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP2 K C Leung · D A Hayes 6 16.0 1-1/2
4 13 SUPER HIGHWAY B/H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 10 9.7 1-3/4
5 14 SPICY SKEWER Closed strongly CP V Borges · K L Man 2 34.0 2
6 10 SPLENDID LIVING Led early H-/XB-/TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 18.0 2-1/4
7 5 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B C Y Ho · W Y So 4 17.0 3-3/4
8 1 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly V L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 22.0 4-1/4
9 4 SMILING COLLECTOR SR-/V1/XB1 M Chadwick · K H Ting 14 5.6 4-1/2
10 8 OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 7 9.4 5-1/2
11 9 MAXIMIZE HEART B2 R Maia · C H Yip 8 10.0 5-1/2
12 12 RING BELLS Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · R Gibson 13 23.0 6-1/4
13 3 LEATHER VANGUARD Y L Chung · T P Yung 11 14.0 7
14 6 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 12 40.0 19-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT PEACH2. COMPASSION SPIRIT+0.2L3. LIFELINE VISION+1.5L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+1.75L5. SPICY SKEWER+2L6. SPLENDID LIVING+2.25L7. COPARTNER ERA+3.75L8. GRACYLOVE+4.25L9. SMILING COLLECTOR+4.5L10. OVER THE MOON+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick COMPASSION SPIRIT (12.3%) finished 2nd — the winner PERFECT PEACH was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 COMPASSION SPIRIT 12.3% 8.14 2
2 8 OVER THE MOON 10.7% 9.33 10
3 5 COPARTNER ERA 10.3% 9.68 7
4 4 SMILING COLLECTOR 10.1% 9.92 9
5 3 LEATHER VANGUARD 8.9% 11.29 13
6 13 SUPER HIGHWAY 8.7% 11.55 4
7 7 LIFELINE VISION 6.8% 14.71 3
8 10 SPLENDID LIVING 6.4% 15.58 6
9 11 PERFECT PEACH 6.4% 15.65 1
10 12 RING BELLS 5.4% 18.58 12
11 9 MAXIMIZE HEART 4.8% 20.63 11
12 1 GRACYLOVE 4.3% 23.21 8
13 6 ROYAL AGILITY 3.2% 31.72 14
14 14 SPICY SKEWER 1.8% 56.35 5
COMPASSION SPIRITOVER THE MOONCOPARTNER ERASMILING COLLECTORLEATHER VANGUARDSUPER HIGHWAYLIFELINE VISIONSPLENDID LIVINGPERFECT PEACH — wonRING BELLSMAXIMIZE HEARTGRACYLOVEROYAL AGILITYSPICY SKEWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 106.5

PLACE

2 16.5

7 47

11 36.5

QUINELLA

2,11 230

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 123

2,11 83

7,11 262

FORECAST

11,2 417

TIERCE

11,2,7 4,661

TRIO

2,7,11 1,143

FIRST 4

2,7,11,13 2,902

QUARTET

11,2,7,13 64,753

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

10>2,7,8/2,7,11 14,846

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 34.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 35

2/11 287.5