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Sha Tin · 2022-10-01 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY SHARING, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with MIDORI BEAUTY second and POWER KOEPP third. The 2.6 favourite MIDORI BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 HAPPY SHARING TT 1.08.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng 6 11.0 3/4
2 5 MIDORI BEAUTY TT Z Purton · W Y So 7 2.6 3/4
3 1 POWER KOEPP E A Badel · J Size 5 8.1 2-3/4
4 9 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 16.0 3-1/4
5 4 LUCKY EIGHT M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 4.7 3-3/4
6 7 MR MAJESTIC H L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 11.0 4-1/4
7 8 BEAUTY MISSION CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 15.0 5-3/4
8 3 GLORIOUS STARLIGHT K C Leung · Y S Tsui 4 79.0 5-3/4
9 2 NABOO LEGEND CP1 C Y Ho · D A Hayes 1 7.0 7
10 6 SPARKLING KNIGHT C Wong · C H Yip 2 21.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY SHARING2. MIDORI BEAUTY+0.75L3. POWER KOEPP+2.75L4. CALIFORNIA VANES+3.25L5. LUCKY EIGHT+3.75L6. MR MAJESTIC+4.25L7. BEAUTY MISSION+5.75L8. GLORIOUS STARLIGHT+5.75L9. NABOO LEGEND+7L10. SPARKLING KNIGHT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MIDORI BEAUTY (21.9%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY SHARING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MIDORI BEAUTY 21.9% 4.57 2
2 4 LUCKY EIGHT 16.7% 6.01 5
3 7 MR MAJESTIC 13.6% 7.36 6
4 10 HAPPY SHARING 11.3% 8.85 1
5 1 POWER KOEPP 9.0% 11.07 3
6 9 CALIFORNIA VANES 7.4% 13.52 4
7 6 SPARKLING KNIGHT 7.2% 13.95 10
8 8 BEAUTY MISSION 6.1% 16.52 7
9 2 NABOO LEGEND 6.0% 16.59 9
10 3 GLORIOUS STARLIGHT 0.9% 111.98 8
MIDORI BEAUTYLUCKY EIGHTMR MAJESTICHAPPY SHARING — wonPOWER KOEPPCALIFORNIA VANESSPARKLING KNIGHTBEAUTY MISSIONNABOO LEGENDGLORIOUS STARLIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 117

PLACE

1 23

5 13.5

10 33

QUINELLA

5,10 130.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 46.5

1,10 128.5

5,10 57

FORECAST

10,5 607

TIERCE

10,5,1 2,435

TRIO

1,5,10 271

FIRST 4

1,5,9,10 886

QUARTET

10,5,1,9 31,553

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 34.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

3/5 25.5

3/10 614

TRIPLE TRIO

2,7,11/3,6,8/1,5,10 1,087,916

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,7,11/3,6,8/Any Combination 3,348