Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 13:31
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FIERY DIAMOND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with MAGIC SUPREME second and THUNDERSTRIKE third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FIERY DIAMOND 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 7 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME B/TT R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 11 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | THUNDERSTRIKE B/H Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 8 | 6.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | TURBO POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 7.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | STARRY NIGHT B M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 12 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | PROSECCO H1/SR1 L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 10 | 29.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | TELECOM MISSILE B/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 2 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | VIVA A LA H/P/TT C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 1 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | MIGHTY VALOR K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SPEEDSTAR B L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 4 | 73.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | MOERAKI B/TT L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 3 | 10.0 | 10 |
| — | 10 | OCTOCONNECT B V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 5 | 90.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MOERAKI | 19.7% | 5.07 | 11 |
| 2 | 8 | FIERY DIAMOND | 19.3% | 5.19 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | STARRY NIGHT | 10.8% | 9.22 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | THUNDERSTRIKE | 10.8% | 9.27 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | TURBO POWER | 9.4% | 10.67 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | TELECOM MISSILE | 8.6% | 11.63 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | PROSECCO | 7.3% | 13.74 | 6 |
| 8 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME | 4.1% | 24.14 | 2 |
| 9 | 3 | MIGHTY VALOR | 3.8% | 26.27 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | VIVA A LA | 3.3% | 29.94 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | SPEEDSTAR | 2.8% | 35.46 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 37
PLACE
1 17
5 20
8 15.5
QUINELLA
1,8 37
5,8 54
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 58
1,8 32
5,8 43
FORECAST
8,1 119
8,5 61
TIERCE
8,1,5 362
8,5,1 394
TRIO
1,5,8 154
FIRST 4
1,5,6,8 186
QUARTET
8,1,5,6 1,708
8,5,1,6 1,653
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/1 12.5
7/5 11.5
7/8 76.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19