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Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FIERY DIAMOND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with MAGIC SUPREME second and THUNDERSTRIKE third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FIERY DIAMOND 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 7 3.7 1-1/4
2 1 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT R Maia · K L Man 11 3.9 1-1/4
2 5 THUNDERSTRIKE B/H Y L Chung · D J Whyte 8 6.3 1-1/4
4 6 TURBO POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 7.7 1-1/2
5 4 STARRY NIGHT B M Chadwick · D A Hayes 12 13.0 3-1/4
6 2 PROSECCO H1/SR1 L Hewitson · R Gibson 10 29.0 3-1/2
7 12 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 2 10.0 4-1/4
8 9 VIVA A LA H/P/TT C L Chau · L Ho 1 39.0 5
9 3 MIGHTY VALOR K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 17.0 5-1/4
10 7 SPEEDSTAR B L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 73.0 5-3/4
11 11 MOERAKI B/TT L Currie · C W Chang 3 10.0 10
10 OCTOCONNECT B V Borges · Y S Tsui 5 90.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIERY DIAMOND2. MAGIC SUPREME+1.25L2. THUNDERSTRIKE+1.25L4. TURBO POWER+1.5L5. STARRY NIGHT+3.25L6. PROSECCO+3.5L7. TELECOM MISSILE+4.25L8. VIVA A LA+5L9. MIGHTY VALOR+5.25L10. SPEEDSTAR+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MOERAKI (19.7%) finished 11th — the winner FIERY DIAMOND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MOERAKI 19.7% 5.07 11
2 8 FIERY DIAMOND 19.3% 5.19 1
3 4 STARRY NIGHT 10.8% 9.22 5
4 5 THUNDERSTRIKE 10.8% 9.27 2
5 6 TURBO POWER 9.4% 10.67 4
6 12 TELECOM MISSILE 8.6% 11.63 7
7 2 PROSECCO 7.3% 13.74 6
8 1 MAGIC SUPREME 4.1% 24.14 2
9 3 MIGHTY VALOR 3.8% 26.27 9
10 9 VIVA A LA 3.3% 29.94 8
11 7 SPEEDSTAR 2.8% 35.46 10
MOERAKIFIERY DIAMOND — wonSTARRY NIGHTTHUNDERSTRIKETURBO POWERTELECOM MISSILEPROSECCOMAGIC SUPREMEMIGHTY VALORVIVA A LASPEEDSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 37

PLACE

1 17

5 20

8 15.5

QUINELLA

1,8 37

5,8 54

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 58

1,8 32

5,8 43

FORECAST

8,1 119

8,5 61

TIERCE

8,1,5 362

8,5,1 394

TRIO

1,5,8 154

FIRST 4

1,5,6,8 186

QUARTET

8,1,5,6 1,708

8,5,1,6 1,653

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 12.5

7/5 11.5

7/8 76.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 19