Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAJESTIC STAR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/4, with WE THE SOUTH second and GRATEFUL HEART third. The 1.8 favourite CAMPIONE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.16

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	MAJESTIC STAR 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	7	123 lb	4.0	2-1/4
2	7	WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor	V Borges	F C Lor	3	120 lb	27.0	2-1/4
3	5	GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT C L Chau · W Y So	C L Chau	W Y So	5	122 lb	48.0	2-1/2
4	2	CAMPIONE TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	6	132 lb	1.8	2-1/2
5	1	WINNING DREAMER C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	1	133 lb	8.3	5
6	3	KEEP YOU WARM B/XB K C Leung · K W Lui	K C Leung	K W Lui	4	130 lb	21.0	5-1/2
7	4	SILVER FIG B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard	S De Sousa	A T Millard	2	126 lb	5.5	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CAMPIONE (38.5%) finished 4th — the winner MAJESTIC STAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	CAMPIONE	38.5%	2.60	4	1.8
2	1	WINNING DREAMER	19.4%	5.16	5	8.3
3	4	SILVER FIG	17.8%	5.61	7	5.5
4	6	MAJESTIC STAR	9.9%	10.07	1	4.0
5	5	GRATEFUL HEART	5.2%	19.25	3	48.0
6	3	KEEP YOU WARM	4.8%	20.79	6	21.0
7	7	WE THE SOUTH	4.4%	22.77	2	27.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 40.5

PLACE

5 82.5

6 14

7 44.5

QUINELLA

6,7 484.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 175.5

5,7 360

6,7 89.5

FORECAST

6,7 1,303

TIERCE

6,7,5 13,265

TRIO

5,6,7 3,198

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 640

QUARTET

6,7,5,2 33,181

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/6 253

8/7 198.5

3 PICK 1

A2 18.5

A3 —

A1 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99