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Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 16:06

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FIRE BALL, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with WIDE BLUE YONDER second and SUPER RED DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite ALL IS GOOD finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FIRE BALL Closed strongly 1.21.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C H Yip 1 10.0 SH
2 3 WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP/TT1 S De Sousa · D A Hayes 8 9.7 SH
3 7 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 8.9 1-1/4
4 10 ALL IS GOOD Led early B1 Z Purton · K W Lui 5 3.4 1-1/2
5 2 LET'S DO IT L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 23.0 1-3/4
6 5 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B Y L Chung · T P Yung 6 16.0 1-3/4
7 6 INDIGENOUS REALM H/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 3.8 4
8 4 LESLIE B V Borges · P F Yiu 2 14.0 4-1/4
9 11 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 9 61.0 4-3/4
10 1 HK DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 11.0 5-1/4
11 8 SO YOU TRUST TT1 L Currie · J Size 7 55.0 5-3/4
12 12 RED IMPACT B-/V1/XB1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 10 25.0 5-3/4
13 9 STAND UP M F Poon · F C Lor 11 37.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIRE BALL2. WIDE BLUE YONDER+0.1L3. SUPER RED DRAGON+1.25L4. ALL IS GOOD+1.5L5. LET'S DO IT+1.75L6. SPARKY STAR+1.75L7. INDIGENOUS REALM+4L8. LESLIE+4.25L9. DRAGON PRIDE+4.75L10. HK DRAGON+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ALL IS GOOD (22.7%) finished 4th — the winner FIRE BALL was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 ALL IS GOOD 22.7% 4.40 4
2 3 WIDE BLUE YONDER 11.1% 9.04 2
3 7 SUPER RED DRAGON 9.7% 10.33 3
4 5 SPARKY STAR 7.4% 13.46 6
5 2 LET'S DO IT 7.2% 13.80 5
6 4 LESLIE 6.8% 14.77 8
7 6 INDIGENOUS REALM 6.1% 16.33 7
8 1 HK DRAGON 5.6% 17.95 10
9 13 FIRE BALL 5.4% 18.52 1
10 12 RED IMPACT 5.0% 19.86 12
11 11 DRAGON PRIDE 4.4% 22.61 9
12 8 SO YOU TRUST 4.3% 23.27 11
13 9 STAND UP 4.3% 23.44 13
ALL IS GOODWIDE BLUE YONDERSUPER RED DRAGONSPARKY STARLET'S DO ITLESLIEINDIGENOUS REALMHK DRAGONFIRE BALL — wonRED IMPACTDRAGON PRIDESO YOU TRUSTSTAND UP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 109.5

PLACE

3 26

7 26

13 31

QUINELLA

3,13 494.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 115.5

3,13 148.5

7,13 136.5

FORECAST

13,3 1,075

TIERCE

13,3,7 8,873

TRIO

3,7,13 1,208

FIRST 4

3,7,10,13 890

QUARTET

13,3,7,10 32,492

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/3,7,13 79,397

3 PICK 1

A3 26.5

A1

A2

6TH DOUBLE

9/3 34.5

9/13 427