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Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY ETERNAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with REGENCY BO BO second and E BROTHER third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAUTY ETERNAL 1.09.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 14 2.9 2
2 3 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 28.0 2
3 14 E BROTHER B/TT R Maia · K L Man 11 24.0 2-3/4
4 8 PRIME MORTAR CP1/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 1 23.0 4-3/4
5 10 MASTER OF LUCK H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 34.0 5
6 6 MARVEL DRAGON V1/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 2 9.5 5-1/4
7 4 TRIUMPHANT RETURN XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 13.0 5-1/2
8 1 PROUD DRAGON B K H Chan · C Fownes 4 9.1 5-3/4
9 2 WAR WEAPON H/P/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 7 6.3 6-1/4
10 9 SPARTAN MISSILE B1/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 5 22.0 6-3/4
11 11 HAPPY TRIO SR/H1 L Currie · D J Whyte 10 42.0 13
12 7 GOLDEN FAIRY XB/B1 A Hamelin · A T Millard 13 144.0 14
13 13 KING OF THE COURT S De Sousa · D J Whyte 9 5.2 15
14 12 FORTUNE TURBO B/TT- H N Wong · T P Yung 8 128.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ETERNAL2. REGENCY BO BO+2L3. E BROTHER+2.75L4. PRIME MORTAR+4.75L5. MASTER OF LUCK+5L6. MARVEL DRAGON+5.25L7. TRIUMPHANT RETURN+5.5L8. PROUD DRAGON+5.75L9. WAR WEAPON+6.25L10. SPARTAN MISSILE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (21.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BEAUTY ETERNAL 21.6% 4.63 1
2 13 KING OF THE COURT 10.6% 9.46 13
3 1 PROUD DRAGON 9.2% 10.90 8
4 2 WAR WEAPON 8.1% 12.33 9
5 8 PRIME MORTAR 7.8% 12.75 4
6 4 TRIUMPHANT RETURN 7.6% 13.16 7
7 11 HAPPY TRIO 6.5% 15.41 11
8 9 SPARTAN MISSILE 6.3% 15.76 10
9 6 MARVEL DRAGON 5.9% 16.96 6
10 14 E BROTHER 5.7% 17.44 3
11 3 REGENCY BO BO 5.0% 19.99 2
12 10 MASTER OF LUCK 4.2% 23.91 5
13 7 GOLDEN FAIRY 0.8% 120.94 12
14 12 FORTUNE TURBO 0.6% 158.07 14
BEAUTY ETERNAL — wonKING OF THE COURTPROUD DRAGONWAR WEAPONPRIME MORTARTRIUMPHANT RETURNHAPPY TRIOSPARTAN MISSILEMARVEL DRAGONE BROTHERREGENCY BO BOMASTER OF LUCKGOLDEN FAIRYFORTUNE TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 29.5

PLACE

3 58.5

5 15

14 66.5

QUINELLA

3,5 401

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 128

3,14 627

5,14 127.5

FORECAST

5,3 716

TIERCE

5,3,14 8,359

TRIO

3,5,14 2,149

FIRST 4

3,5,8,14 11,447

QUARTET

5,3,14,8 145,796

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19

4TH DOUBLE

11/3 215.5

11/5 117