Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 14:31
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY BABY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with WINWIN THIRTYTHREE second and U W BROTHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly 1.22.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 3.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | U W BROTHER Led early M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 7 | 18.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | M M JOHNNY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | APEX TOP B R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 3 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | AURORA HERO B/TT S De Sousa · C Fownes | S De Sousa | C Fownes | 4 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | THE GOOD DEAL H/TT L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 5 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 9 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR P-/H/XB C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 54.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | TOWARDS SUCCESS Closed strongly TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 14 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | BOYS PARTY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | TAKINGUFURTHER V H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 11 | 75.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 4 | GOLD COMET V-/H1 C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 6 | 65.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUNNY BABY | 16.8% | 5.95 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | M M JOHNNY | 14.7% | 6.82 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 12.3% | 8.12 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | AURORA HERO | 8.2% | 12.20 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 7.7% | 12.93 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | APEX TOP | 7.0% | 14.27 | 5 |
| 7 | 13 | BOYS PARTY | 6.0% | 16.72 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | BRAVE POWER | 5.8% | 17.20 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | U W BROTHER | 5.4% | 18.44 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | THE GOOD DEAL | 4.8% | 20.79 | 7 |
| 11 | 14 | TOWARDS SUCCESS | 4.7% | 21.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | GOLD COMET | 2.7% | 37.48 | 14 |
| 13 | 8 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 2.2% | 45.50 | 13 |
| 14 | 6 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 1.7% | 57.80 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 35
PLACE
1 35
11 16.5
12 42
QUINELLA
1,11 210
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 86.5
1,12 250
11,12 122.5
FORECAST
11,1 386
TIERCE
11,1,12 3,783
TRIO
1,11,12 994
FIRST 4
1,9,11,12 2,009
QUARTET
11,1,12,9 36,483
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,7/1,11,12 863,682
3 PICK 1
A1 19
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/1 99.5
6/11 260