Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 17:13
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ERIMO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with WINNER METHOD second and DECRYPT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | ERIMO Closed strongly B 1.21.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 4.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | WINNER METHOD TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 9 | 9.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | DECRYPT Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 3 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | RED TITAN Closed strongly H/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 10 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | KILINDINI Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 11 | 33.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE Led early TT Y L Chung · D J Hall | Y L Chung | D J Hall | 4 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | KASA PAPA TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | BEAUTY CHAMP SR/XB/H1/TT2 R Maia · D J Whyte | R Maia | D J Whyte | 14 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | SKY FOREVER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 6 | 24.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 13 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | DRAGON FORTUNE TT L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 8 | 41.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPER BABY CP1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 12 | 64.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | CIRCUIT NINE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 5.4 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE B1/XB1/TT1 L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 2 | 29.0 | 19 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | ERIMO | 23.9% | 4.19 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | CIRCUIT NINE | 13.0% | 7.68 | 13 |
| 3 | 8 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 8.8% | 11.32 | 6 |
| 4 | 14 | RED TITAN | 8.7% | 11.50 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | DECRYPT | 6.4% | 15.58 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | BEAUTY CHAMP | 6.2% | 16.08 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | KILINDINI | 5.6% | 17.75 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE | 5.0% | 19.97 | 14 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNER METHOD | 4.6% | 21.88 | 2 |
| 10 | 6 | DRAGON FORTUNE | 4.5% | 22.12 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | SKY FOREVER | 4.5% | 22.27 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | KASA PAPA | 4.3% | 23.12 | 7 |
| 13 | 1 | MASTER MONTARO | 3.0% | 33.14 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | SUPER BABY | 1.4% | 73.68 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 41
PLACE
2 31
4 19.5
13 16.5
QUINELLA
2,13 212
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 88.5
2,13 81
4,13 45
FORECAST
13,2 331
TIERCE
13,2,4 1,881
TRIO
2,4,13 349
FIRST 4
2,4,13,14 678
QUARTET
13,2,4,14 13,810
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 23
8TH DOUBLE
9/2 116.5
9/13 193.5