Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 17:48
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PACKING VICTORY Closed strongly TT 1.21.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 9 | 14.0 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | SAUVESTRE Led early TT L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 13 | 35.0 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 17.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | KEEFY S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 14 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | THE IRISHMAN H/XB1/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | APACHE PASS BO/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 7 | 61.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 3 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 10 | 74.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | SPIRITED EXPRESS B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 2 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly B/E V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 39.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 4 | 80.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 12 | 101.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 0 | NAVAS TWO CP R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 11 | 9.1 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | SILVER EXPRESS B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 50.0 | 19-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PACKING VICTORY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with SAUVESTRE second and THE GOLDEN SCENERY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite GALAXY WITNESS finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KEEFY | 19.5% | 5.12 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | GALAXY WITNESS | 14.8% | 6.76 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | THE IRISHMAN | 12.5% | 7.98 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | SAUVESTRE | 9.6% | 10.45 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | NAVAS TWO | 8.5% | 11.72 | 13 |
| 6 | 0 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 8.0% | 12.51 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | SPIRITED EXPRESS | 4.8% | 20.90 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | BEAUTY FIT | 4.8% | 20.91 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | APACHE PASS | 3.8% | 26.56 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 3.7% | 26.95 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | C P BRAVE | 3.5% | 28.84 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | PACKING VICTORY | 2.6% | 38.81 | 1 |
| 13 | 0 | SILVER EXPRESS | 2.3% | 43.57 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 1.7% | 60.44 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 146
PLACE
2 37.5
6 36
8 63
QUINELLA
6,8 1,301.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 238
2,8 457
6,8 355
FORECAST
6,8 2,024
TIERCE
6,8,2 22,398
TRIO
2,6,8 4,460
FIRST 4
2,6,7,8 4,890
QUARTET
6,8,2,7 135,879
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 41.5
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,13/2,6,8 254,273
9TH DOUBLE
13/6 623
13/8 270
SIX UP
3,5/1,9/3,13/3,9/2,13/6,8 27,307
5/9/13/9/13/6 240,480
1 [T P Yung] —
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/13/6 1,966
9/13/8 1,110