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Sha Tin · 2022-10-09 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAN STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with MAXIMUS second and CZARSON third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MAN STAR V 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting 11 3.7 3/4
2 3 MAXIMUS SR/XB1 S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 12.0 3/4
3 4 CZARSON B/TT L Hewitson · P F Yiu 7 4.0 2
4 7 RED DESERT B A Hamelin · J Size 5 8.0 2-1/4
5 5 EXCELLENT DADDY TT K C Leung · T P Yung 4 19.0 3-1/2
6 10 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 14.0 3-3/4
7 12 SPONTANEOUS B V Borges · P C Ng 8 16.0 3-3/4
8 11 BRILLIANT LIFE M F Poon · C H Yip 9 41.0 6-1/2
9 8 LIKE THAT V C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 9.8 7-1/2
10 6 LUCKY FUN V1/TT M Chadwick · L Ho 3 9.3 7-1/2
11 1 SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 6 21.0 9-1/2
12 2 ATOMIC FORCE TT K H Chan · C Fownes 12 33.0 19-1/2
0 CALIFORNIA RAD Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAN STAR2. MAXIMUS+0.75L3. CZARSON+2L4. RED DESERT+2.25L5. EXCELLENT DADDY+3.5L6. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+3.75L7. SPONTANEOUS+3.75L8. BRILLIANT LIFE+6.5L9. LIKE THAT+7.5L10. LUCKY FUN+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MAN STAR (17.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MAN STAR 17.1% 5.85 1
2 3 MAXIMUS 12.3% 8.10 2
3 4 CZARSON 10.3% 9.69 3
4 2 ATOMIC FORCE 9.2% 10.88 12
5 8 LIKE THAT 9.2% 10.91 9
6 6 LUCKY FUN 8.5% 11.74 10
7 1 SUNNY BOY 7.4% 13.45 11
8 5 EXCELLENT DADDY 7.1% 14.09 5
9 10 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 6.0% 16.67 6
10 12 SPONTANEOUS 5.8% 17.18 7
11 7 RED DESERT 4.7% 21.43 4
12 11 BRILLIANT LIFE 2.3% 42.58 8
MAN STAR — wonMAXIMUSCZARSONATOMIC FORCELIKE THATLUCKY FUNSUNNY BOYEXCELLENT DADDYEIGHT TRIGRAMSSPONTANEOUSRED DESERTBRILLIANT LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 37.5

PLACE

3 38.5

4 16.5

9 16.5

QUINELLA

3,9 272

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 111.5

3,9 110

4,9 36.5

FORECAST

9,3 526

TIERCE

9,3,4 2,142

TRIO

3,4,9 412

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 553

QUARTET

9,3,4,7 11,569

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 25.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

13/3 223

13/9 603.5