Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 13:31
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BRAVE DREAMS, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with E BROTHER second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BRAVE DREAMS H/TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | E BROTHER B/TT R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 7 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 5 | 6.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 10 | 9.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | WAR WEAPON H-/P-/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 9 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SHINING RED SR M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 8 | 56.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | SMILING COLLECTOR V/XB M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 2 | 4.3 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | EASY SNIP H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 6 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | NOBLE ONE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 7.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | TRUST ME H/B2 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 12 | 27.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | BRILLIANT EIGHT M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 11 | 81.0 | 10 |
| — | 0 | PACKING GOODSING Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BRAVE DREAMS | 22.1% | 4.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 17.9% | 5.58 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | NOBLE ONE | 11.1% | 8.99 | 10 |
| 4 | 12 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 8.6% | 11.62 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | UNITED WE STAND | 8.2% | 12.20 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | E BROTHER | 7.5% | 13.42 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 7.1% | 14.18 | 9 |
| 8 | 1 | WAR WEAPON | 6.8% | 14.70 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | EASY SNIP | 4.5% | 22.46 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | TRUST ME | 3.9% | 25.61 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | SHINING RED | 1.4% | 71.71 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | BRILLIANT EIGHT | 0.9% | 106.40 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 38
PLACE
8 15
11 34.5
12 23
QUINELLA
8,11 218.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 82.5
8,12 42
11,12 131.5
FORECAST
8,11 448
TIERCE
8,11,12 1,841
TRIO
8,11,12 408
FIRST 4
8,9,11,12 776
QUARTET
8,11,12,9 15,548
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/8 138
3/11 70
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 24.5
A3 —