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Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT 1.21.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · W Y So 4 16.0 N
2 0 CHING Closed strongly L Currie · C W Chang 14 10.0 N
3 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 8 9.2 3/4
4 0 SUPER HIGHWAY Closed strongly B/H/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor 5 5.0 1
5 0 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 2 13.0 1-1/2
6 0 BEAUTY CHAMP H/P/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 3 7.8 1-3/4
7 0 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · T P Yung 10 15.0 2
8 0 GOOD NEWS B/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 20.0 2-3/4
9 0 VUKAN B/XB/TT1 R Maia · J Richards 1 10.0 3-1/4
10 0 ALL IS GOOD B-/V1 Z Purton · K W Lui 13 5.6 3-1/4
11 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 6 21.0 9
12 0 SO YOU TRUST TT A Badel · J Size 9 65.0 9-1/4
13 0 MY INTELLIGENT Led early V2/TT L Hewitson · L Ho 11 12.0 9-3/4
14 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA H1/TT K H Chan · P C Ng 7 123.0 10

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. YOUNG VICTORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by W Y So, won by N, with CHING second and SINGAPORE SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite SUPER HIGHWAY finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG VICTORY—2. CHING+0.05L3. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+0.75L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+1L5. NICHOLSON RETURNS+1.5L6. BEAUTY CHAMP+1.75L7. SPARKY STAR+2L8. GOOD NEWS+2.75L9. VUKAN+3.25L10. ALL IS GOOD+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ALL IS GOOD (21.8%) finished 10th — the winner YOUNG VICTORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ALL IS GOOD 21.8% 4.60 10
2 0 SUPER HIGHWAY 16.9% 5.93 4
3 0 NICHOLSON RETURNS 10.1% 9.89 5
4 0 MY INTELLIGENT 7.8% 12.77 13
5 0 BEAUTY CHAMP 6.5% 15.40 6
6 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 6.3% 15.85 3
7 0 SPARKY STAR 5.8% 17.11 7
8 0 GOOD NEWS 5.1% 19.56 8
9 0 YOUNG VICTORY 5.0% 19.99 1
10 0 VUKAN 4.9% 20.59 9
11 0 CHING 4.6% 21.95 2
12 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 2.2% 44.58 11
13 0 SO YOU TRUST 1.8% 55.27 12
14 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA 1.2% 82.48 14
ALL IS GOODSUPER HIGHWAYNICHOLSON RETURNSMY INTELLIGENTBEAUTY CHAMPSINGAPORE SPIRITSPARKY STARGOOD NEWSYOUNG VICTORY — wonVUKANCHINGSTAR OF YUEN LONGSO YOU TRUSTMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 166.5

PLACE

6 35

7 30.5

12 46

QUINELLA

6,12 1,310

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 243

6,12 412

7,12 252

FORECAST

12,6 2,722

TIERCE

12,6,7 30,051

TRIO

6,7,12 5,158

FIRST 4

6,7,12,14 5,243

QUARTET

12,6,7,14 175,898

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/6,7,12 647,967

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 19.5

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

9/6 399

9/12 2,351