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Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. YOUNG VICTORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by W Y So, won by N, with CHING second and SINGAPORE SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite SUPER HIGHWAY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT 1.21.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · W Y So 4 16.0 N
2 6 CHING Closed strongly L Currie · C W Chang 14 10.0 N
3 7 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 8 9.2 3/4
4 14 SUPER HIGHWAY Closed strongly B/H/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor 5 5.0 1
5 5 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 2 13.0 1-1/2
6 2 BEAUTY CHAMP H/P/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 3 7.8 1-3/4
7 4 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · T P Yung 10 15.0 2
8 3 GOOD NEWS B/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 20.0 2-3/4
9 13 VUKAN B/XB/TT1 R Maia · J Richards 1 10.0 3-1/4
10 9 ALL IS GOOD B-/V1 Z Purton · K W Lui 13 5.6 3-1/4
11 11 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 6 21.0 9
12 8 SO YOU TRUST TT A Badel · J Size 9 65.0 9-1/4
13 10 MY INTELLIGENT Led early V2/TT L Hewitson · L Ho 11 12.0 9-3/4
14 1 MOONLIGHT VISTA H1/TT K H Chan · P C Ng 7 123.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG VICTORY2. CHING+0.05L3. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+0.75L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+1L5. NICHOLSON RETURNS+1.5L6. BEAUTY CHAMP+1.75L7. SPARKY STAR+2L8. GOOD NEWS+2.75L9. VUKAN+3.25L10. ALL IS GOOD+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ALL IS GOOD (21.8%) finished 10th — the winner YOUNG VICTORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ALL IS GOOD 21.8% 4.60 10
2 14 SUPER HIGHWAY 16.9% 5.93 4
3 5 NICHOLSON RETURNS 10.1% 9.89 5
4 10 MY INTELLIGENT 7.8% 12.77 13
5 2 BEAUTY CHAMP 6.5% 15.40 6
6 7 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 6.3% 15.85 3
7 4 SPARKY STAR 5.8% 17.11 7
8 3 GOOD NEWS 5.1% 19.56 8
9 12 YOUNG VICTORY 5.0% 19.99 1
10 13 VUKAN 4.9% 20.59 9
11 6 CHING 4.6% 21.95 2
12 11 STAR OF YUEN LONG 2.2% 44.58 11
13 8 SO YOU TRUST 1.8% 55.27 12
14 1 MOONLIGHT VISTA 1.2% 82.48 14
ALL IS GOODSUPER HIGHWAYNICHOLSON RETURNSMY INTELLIGENTBEAUTY CHAMPSINGAPORE SPIRITSPARKY STARGOOD NEWSYOUNG VICTORY — wonVUKANCHINGSTAR OF YUEN LONGSO YOU TRUSTMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 166.5

PLACE

6 35

7 30.5

12 46

QUINELLA

6,12 1,310

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 243

6,12 412

7,12 252

FORECAST

12,6 2,722

TIERCE

12,6,7 30,051

TRIO

6,7,12 5,158

FIRST 4

6,7,12,14 5,243

QUARTET

12,6,7,14 175,898

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/6,7,12 647,967

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 19.5

3RD DOUBLE

9/6 399

9/12 2,351