Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 16:43
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ERIMO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2-1/2, with ALL RICHES second and AMAZING VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ERIMO Closed strongly B 1.21.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 1.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | ALL RICHES Led early CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 7.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | AMAZING VICTORY H L Hewitson · L Ho | L Hewitson | L Ho | 4 | 4.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | TRADER CP/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 9 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly SR C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 7 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 8 | 53.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | KASA PAPA TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 2 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | DRAGON FORTUNE CP1/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 5 | 54.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly CP2 K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 11 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | IMPERIAL MAGEE H/SR1/TT V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 10 | 85.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | DORADO FIG S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 6 | 29.0 | 43-1/4 |
| — | 10 | CALIFORNIA REDWOOD M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ERIMO | 35.8% | 2.79 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | AMAZING VICTORY | 16.3% | 6.12 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | ALL RICHES | 13.0% | 7.67 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | TRADER | 7.3% | 13.76 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | DORADO FIG | 6.1% | 16.44 | 11 |
| 6 | 4 | KASA PAPA | 5.1% | 19.49 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | PRINCE ALEX | 4.7% | 21.28 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | MASTER MONTARO | 3.6% | 27.70 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 3.1% | 31.80 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | IMPERIAL MAGEE | 2.9% | 34.16 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | DRAGON FORTUNE | 2.0% | 51.03 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 18.5
PLACE
6 10.1
7 15.5
11 23
QUINELLA
6,11 75.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 18.5
6,11 32
7,11 47.5
FORECAST
6,11 101
TIERCE
6,11,7 231
TRIO
6,7,11 66
FIRST 4
6,7,9,11 135
QUARTET
6,11,7,9 1,549
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13
7TH DOUBLE
9/6 132.5
9/11 54