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Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 15:33

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. TURQUOISE ALPHA, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with LET'S DO IT second and ACCELERANDO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite ACCELERANDO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB 1.34.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P C Ng 4 6.2 N
2 4 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 12 4.5 N
3 6 ACCELERANDO Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 3 2.8 N
4 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND TT H Bentley · W Y So 14 18.0 1-1/4
5 8 EZRA Closed strongly B L Hewitson · A T Millard 1 20.0 1-3/4
6 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 12.0 2
7 5 ODE TO JOY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 5 29.0 2-1/4
8 7 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE L Ferraris · C W Chang 9 12.0 3-1/2
9 12 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 46.0 3-1/2
10 2 FREE FOAL V M F Poon · F C Lor 2 16.0 4-1/4
11 3 FUNCTION PATCH Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 41.0 4-1/2
12 14 SPICY SKEWER CP M L Yeung · K L Man 6 37.0 8
13 9 KASI FARASI R Maia · C H Yip 11 29.0 8-1/4
14 13 MIGHTY STAR Led early B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 71.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURQUOISE ALPHA2. LET'S DO IT+0.05L3. ACCELERANDO+0.05L4. PAKISTAN FRIEND+1.25L5. EZRA+1.75L6. WIDE BLUE YONDER+2L7. ODE TO JOY+2.25L8. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.5L9. DRAGON PRIDE+3.5L10. FREE FOAL+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURQUOISE ALPHA (14.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA 14.0% 7.14 1
2 4 LET'S DO IT 13.0% 7.69 2
3 6 ACCELERANDO 12.9% 7.74 3
4 7 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 10.6% 9.43 8
5 2 FREE FOAL 7.7% 12.92 10
6 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER 7.4% 13.43 6
7 14 SPICY SKEWER 5.5% 18.09 12
8 5 ODE TO JOY 4.9% 20.50 7
9 9 KASI FARASI 4.8% 20.95 13
10 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND 4.8% 20.97 4
11 3 FUNCTION PATCH 4.7% 21.22 11
12 8 EZRA 4.2% 23.68 5
13 12 DRAGON PRIDE 3.4% 29.64 9
14 13 MIGHTY STAR 2.0% 49.31 14
TURQUOISE ALPHA — wonLET'S DO ITACCELERANDOPRESIDENT'S CHOICEFREE FOALWIDE BLUE YONDERSPICY SKEWERODE TO JOYKASI FARASIPAKISTAN FRIENDFUNCTION PATCHEZRADRAGON PRIDEMIGHTY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 62.5

PLACE

4 18

6 15.5

10 21

QUINELLA

4,10 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 42.5

4,10 50

6,10 51

FORECAST

10,4 340

TIERCE

10,4,6 1,159

TRIO

4,6,10 204

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 576

QUARTET

10,4,6,11 15,691

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 36.5

5TH DOUBLE

10/4 44

10/10 185

TRIPLE TRIO

6,7,12/1,8,10/4,6,10 31,564,828

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,7,12/1,8,10/Any Combination 296,674