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Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 16:08

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MONEY CATCHER, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY JOY second and SENOR TOBA third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite BEAUTY JOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.46.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MONEY CATCHER Wire to wire B 1.46.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · F C Lor 6 5.1 1/2
2 1 BEAUTY JOY H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 2.3 1/2
3 3 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 11.0 1-3/4
4 8 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 6.2 2-1/2
5 6 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 2 14.0 3-1/4
6 7 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 5 22.0 3-1/2
7 10 CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor 10 28.0 4-3/4
8 4 COLUMBUS COUNTY TT K C Leung · C Fownes 3 26.0 9-1/2
9 5 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL B A Badel · J Size 8 11.0 10-1/2
10 2 KA YING STAR V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 1 16.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONEY CATCHER2. BEAUTY JOY+0.5L3. SENOR TOBA+1.75L4. TURIN REDSUN+2.5L5. SAVVY NINE+3.25L6. BUTTERFIELD+3.5L7. CELESTIAL POWER+4.75L8. COLUMBUS COUNTY+9.5L9. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+10.5L10. KA YING STAR+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MONEY CATCHER (24.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MONEY CATCHER 24.3% 4.12 1
2 1 BEAUTY JOY 22.7% 4.41 2
3 3 SENOR TOBA 11.5% 8.66 3
4 8 TURIN REDSUN 10.5% 9.48 4
5 2 KA YING STAR 7.2% 13.86 10
6 5 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 5.5% 18.08 9
7 4 COLUMBUS COUNTY 5.4% 18.64 8
8 6 SAVVY NINE 5.0% 20.11 5
9 10 CELESTIAL POWER 4.8% 20.72 7
10 7 BUTTERFIELD 3.0% 32.97 6
MONEY CATCHER — wonBEAUTY JOYSENOR TOBATURIN REDSUNKA YING STAREXCELLENT PROPOSALCOLUMBUS COUNTYSAVVY NINECELESTIAL POWERBUTTERFIELD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 51.5

PLACE

1 12.5

3 26.5

9 20

QUINELLA

1,9 67

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 54

1,9 33

3,9 84

FORECAST

9,1 191

TIERCE

9,1,3 1,147

TRIO

1,3,9 216

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 174

QUARTET

9,1,3,8 4,744

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,10/1,3,9 3,201

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2

6TH DOUBLE

10/1 35.5

10/9 296