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Sha Tin · 2022-11-06 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SCIENCE PATCH, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with GOOD BUDDY second and BEAUTY ETERNAL third. The 1.5 favourite BEAUTY ETERNAL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SCIENCE PATCH V 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P C Ng 2 8.4 SH
2 6 GOOD BUDDY M Chadwick · D J Hall 8 7.7 SH
3 9 BEAUTY ETERNAL Z Purton · J Size 7 1.5 N
4 2 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 6.0 1
5 10 SUPER WINNER TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 63.0 2-1/4
6 7 CHARMANDER B1/XB1/TT1 R Maia · J Richards 1 73.0 3-1/4
7 8 DINKUM C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 42.0 3-1/2
8 1 NICCONI COUNTY TT A Badel · C Fownes 11 40.0 4
9 3 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 9 30.0 4-1/2
10 5 SATIRICAL GLORY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 102.0 4-1/2
11 11 WINE AND WINE B/TT C Wong · T P Yung 4 97.0 8
12 4 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE XB1 L Currie · A T Millard 5 126.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SCIENCE PATCH2. GOOD BUDDY+0.1L3. BEAUTY ETERNAL+0.05L4. SUPER FORTUNE+1L5. SUPER WINNER+2.25L6. CHARMANDER+3.25L7. DINKUM+3.5L8. NICCONI COUNTY+4L9. SMART IDEA+4.5L10. SATIRICAL GLORY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY ETERNAL (43.0%) finished 3rd — the winner SCIENCE PATCH was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 BEAUTY ETERNAL 43.0% 2.33 3
2 2 SUPER FORTUNE 13.3% 7.51 4
3 12 SCIENCE PATCH 11.0% 9.05 1
4 1 NICCONI COUNTY 8.3% 12.03 8
5 6 GOOD BUDDY 7.5% 13.25 2
6 3 SMART IDEA 4.2% 23.84 9
7 8 DINKUM 3.4% 29.56 7
8 10 SUPER WINNER 2.5% 40.58 5
9 7 CHARMANDER 2.1% 46.96 6
10 5 SATIRICAL GLORY 2.0% 50.85 10
11 11 WINE AND WINE 1.8% 55.68 11
12 4 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE 0.8% 118.14 12
BEAUTY ETERNALSUPER FORTUNESCIENCE PATCH — wonNICCONI COUNTYGOOD BUDDYSMART IDEADINKUMSUPER WINNERCHARMANDERSATIRICAL GLORYWINE AND WINESINGAPORE SUNSHINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 84.5

PLACE

6 17

9 10.5

12 16.5

QUINELLA

6,12 266.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 22

6,12 53.5

9,12 22

FORECAST

12,6 593

TIERCE

12,6,9 1,392

TRIO

6,9,12 82

FIRST 4

2,6,9,12 45

QUARTET

12,6,9,2 2,949

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13

A2

A3

8TH DOUBLE

6/6 32

6/12 177.5