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Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 12:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE ARE HERO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won by 4-1/2, with BABY CRYSTAL second and ONE FOR ALL third. The 1.8 favourite BABY CRYSTAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WE ARE HERO B-/V1/TT1 0.56.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man 7 5.5 4-1/2
2 4 BABY CRYSTAL V Borges · J Size 10 1.8 4-1/2
3 13 ONE FOR ALL B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 12 16.0 5-1/4
4 11 MIGHTY VALOR CP/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 1 11.0 5-1/2
5 3 NOBLE ONE H/TT1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 10.0 6
6 2 SUPER EAGLE H- L Currie · D A Hayes 9 69.0 7-1/4
7 7 ALWAYS BEAUTIFUL M Chadwick · W Y So 8 20.0 7-3/4
8 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 22.0 8
9 10 YOO YOO KNIGHT H1 C L Chau · P C Ng 4 87.0 8-1/4
10 8 CURLING SPEED B1 J McNeil · Y S Tsui 13 99.0 10-1/2
11 12 SPEEDSTAR B M F Poon · D J Hall 11 80.0 11-3/4
12 6 SEE U AGAIN B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 5 12.0 14
13 14 FORTUNE TURBO B H T Mo · T P Yung 6 78.0 24-3/4
9 KA YING WARRIOR Z Purton · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WE ARE HERO2. BABY CRYSTAL+4.5L3. ONE FOR ALL+5.25L4. MIGHTY VALOR+5.5L5. NOBLE ONE+6L6. SUPER EAGLE+7.25L7. ALWAYS BEAUTIFUL+7.75L8. KOKUSHI MUSOU+8L9. YOO YOO KNIGHT+8.25L10. CURLING SPEED+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BABY CRYSTAL (27.2%) finished 2nd — the winner WE ARE HERO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BABY CRYSTAL 27.2% 3.68 2
2 6 SEE U AGAIN 13.3% 7.54 12
3 3 NOBLE ONE 12.8% 7.83 5
4 5 WE ARE HERO 7.9% 12.69 1
5 1 KOKUSHI MUSOU 7.3% 13.71 8
6 10 YOO YOO KNIGHT 7.1% 14.07 9
7 7 ALWAYS BEAUTIFUL 5.6% 17.95 7
8 11 MIGHTY VALOR 5.0% 20.18 4
9 13 ONE FOR ALL 4.7% 21.48 3
10 8 CURLING SPEED 4.5% 22.47 10
11 2 SUPER EAGLE 1.9% 52.99 6
12 12 SPEEDSTAR 1.9% 53.09 11
13 14 FORTUNE TURBO 1.1% 89.50 13
BABY CRYSTALSEE U AGAINNOBLE ONEWE ARE HERO — wonKOKUSHI MUSOUYOO YOO KNIGHTALWAYS BEAUTIFULMIGHTY VALORONE FOR ALLCURLING SPEEDSUPER EAGLESPEEDSTARFORTUNE TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 55

PLACE

4 12.5

5 17

13 33

QUINELLA

4,5 63

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 32.5

4,13 55

5,13 101.5

FORECAST

5,4 252

TIERCE

5,4,13 1,299

TRIO

4,5,13 207

FIRST 4

4,5,11,13 611

QUARTET

5,4,13,11 12,537

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 28.5

A1