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Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 15:46

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER RED DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with ONE VOICE second and MILLENNIUM FALCON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite ONE VOICE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 14 8.7 1-1/4
2 2 ONE VOICE Led early TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 3.3 1-1/4
3 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON Closed strongly H H Bowman · T P Yung 3 8.7 1-1/2
4 5 CHING Closed strongly L Currie · C W Chang 1 3.3 2
5 7 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 11 9.6 2-3/4
6 3 PROUD DRAGON B-/V1 Y L Chung · C Fownes 9 46.0 3-1/2
7 10 SPEED FAY FAY B2 C L Chau · A T Millard 2 9.2 3-1/2
8 11 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly BO1/XB1/TT L Hewitson · D J Hall 8 44.0 4
9 6 LEAN HERO Closed strongly J McNeil · D A Hayes 13 125.0 4-1/4
10 1 RED TITAN Closed strongly H/TT V Borges · J Size 12 22.0 4-3/4
11 14 EL JEFE V A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 22.0 6-3/4
12 8 SUPER ACE V M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 136.0 8-1/2
13 13 WIN WIN CHARITY XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 6 201.0 11-1/4
14 12 SHINING RED SR M L Yeung · D J Whyte 10 90.0 16

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER RED DRAGON2. ONE VOICE+1.25L3. MILLENNIUM FALCON+1.5L4. CHING+2L5. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+2.75L6. PROUD DRAGON+3.5L7. SPEED FAY FAY+3.5L8. GALLANT HERO+4L9. LEAN HERO+4.25L10. RED TITAN+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ONE VOICE (18.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER RED DRAGON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ONE VOICE 18.4% 5.42 2
2 5 CHING 17.4% 5.75 4
3 14 EL JEFE 10.4% 9.59 11
4 7 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 9.4% 10.67 5
5 9 SUPER RED DRAGON 8.7% 11.51 1
6 4 MILLENNIUM FALCON 8.1% 12.29 3
7 10 SPEED FAY FAY 8.1% 12.38 7
8 1 RED TITAN 5.3% 18.82 10
9 11 GALLANT HERO 3.8% 26.41 8
10 3 PROUD DRAGON 3.3% 29.90 6
11 8 SUPER ACE 2.7% 37.35 12
12 6 LEAN HERO 2.0% 50.26 9
13 12 SHINING RED 1.3% 76.00 14
14 13 WIN WIN CHARITY 1.0% 96.43 13
ONE VOICECHINGEL JEFESINGAPORE SPIRITSUPER RED DRAGON — wonMILLENNIUM FALCONSPEED FAY FAYRED TITANGALLANT HEROPROUD DRAGONSUPER ACELEAN HEROSHINING REDWIN WIN CHARITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 87.5

PLACE

2 14

4 25

9 30

QUINELLA

2,9 163

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 49.5

2,9 63.5

4,9 118.5

FORECAST

9,2 446

TIERCE

9,2,4 2,390

TRIO

2,4,9 435

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 316

QUARTET

9,2,4,5 11,163

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 36

5TH DOUBLE

10/2 100.5

10/9 2,010

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,7/4,6,10/Any Combination 27,368