Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 14:18
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ACCELERANDO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with STAR CONTACT second and CHEERY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ACCELERANDO Closed strongly TT 1.34.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 4 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | CHEERY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 1 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 9 | 48.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT J McNeil · C Fownes | J McNeil | C Fownes | 12 | 40.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 13 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | OSCAR GLORY Led early V Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 5 | 6.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | NICHOLSON RETURNS B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 6 | 7.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | FOREVER GLORIOUS B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 30.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | PAKISTAN FRIEND TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 2 | 6.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | ODE TO JOY B/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 8 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | GENERAL WINNER CP-/B1 L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 3 | 44.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | RING BELLS B/XB M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 14 | 82.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | HAPPY HERO B- V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 10 | 112.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ACCELERANDO | 35.0% | 2.86 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | OSCAR GLORY | 9.9% | 10.07 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | STAR CONTACT | 7.7% | 13.06 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 6.8% | 14.75 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 6.1% | 16.48 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | OVER THE MOON | 5.8% | 17.10 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | GENERAL WINNER | 5.8% | 17.27 | 12 |
| 8 | 13 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 5.8% | 17.38 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 4.2% | 23.55 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | CHEERY | 3.9% | 25.52 | 3 |
| 11 | 5 | ODE TO JOY | 3.7% | 27.39 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | RING BELLS | 2.4% | 42.17 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | DRAGON PRIDE | 2.2% | 45.20 | 4 |
| 14 | 10 | HAPPY HERO | 0.8% | 121.73 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 23
PLACE
2 52.5
4 14
7 42.5
QUINELLA
4,7 252
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 101.5
2,7 382
4,7 90
FORECAST
4,7 381
TIERCE
4,7,2 5,343
TRIO
2,4,7 1,095
FIRST 4
2,4,7,12 10,124
QUARTET
4,7,2,12 78,860
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/2,4,7 24,627
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/4 57
3/7 116.5