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Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 17:57

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PACKING TREADMILL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with KING LAND second and WINNING METHOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PACKING TREADMILL Closed strongly SR 1.21.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 12 2.3 1
2 9 KING LAND Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 5 14.0 1
3 2 WINNING METHOD Closed strongly TT L Currie · C S Shum 2 36.0 1
4 14 SNAFFLES Closed strongly B- M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 159.0 1-3/4
5 8 SHINING GEM B Y L Chung · P F Yiu 7 38.0 2
6 5 BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly TT M F Poon · F C Lor 3 11.0 3-3/4
7 11 SIGHT SPIRIT Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 11 4.9 4-1/4
8 12 CZARSON Closed strongly CP J McNeil · P F Yiu 13 24.0 4-1/2
9 13 ATOMIC BEAUTY B1/TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 10 31.0 5-1/2
10 7 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly H/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 6.3 5-3/4
11 4 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 6 27.0 6
12 1 SILVER EXPRESS B H Bowman · J Size 14 22.0 7
13 6 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly K C Leung · K L Man 8 102.0 7-3/4
14 3 BUDDIES Led early B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 4 22.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING TREADMILL2. KING LAND+1L3. WINNING METHOD+1L4. SNAFFLES+1.75L5. SHINING GEM+2L6. BEAUTY LIVE+3.75L7. SIGHT SPIRIT+4.25L8. CZARSON+4.5L9. ATOMIC BEAUTY+5.5L10. JUMBO FORTUNE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PACKING TREADMILL (26.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 PACKING TREADMILL 26.7% 3.74 1
2 5 BEAUTY LIVE 11.1% 9.04 6
3 11 SIGHT SPIRIT 10.0% 9.96 7
4 7 JUMBO FORTUNE 9.1% 10.95 10
5 9 KING LAND 8.7% 11.45 2
6 4 CHANCHENG PRINCE 7.4% 13.51 11
7 2 WINNING METHOD 5.6% 17.79 3
8 1 SILVER EXPRESS 4.4% 22.47 12
9 8 SHINING GEM 4.3% 23.35 5
10 12 CZARSON 4.1% 24.17 8
11 13 ATOMIC BEAUTY 3.7% 26.70 9
12 6 FIND MY LOVE 2.4% 41.73 13
13 3 BUDDIES 1.4% 69.63 14
14 14 SNAFFLES 0.9% 117.15 4
PACKING TREADMILL — wonBEAUTY LIVESIGHT SPIRITJUMBO FORTUNEKING LANDCHANCHENG PRINCEWINNING METHODSILVER EXPRESSSHINING GEMCZARSONATOMIC BEAUTYFIND MY LOVEBUDDIESSNAFFLES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 23.5

PLACE

2 64.5

9 40

10 13

QUINELLA

9,10 155

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 443

2,10 123

9,10 66

FORECAST

10,9 302

TIERCE

10,9,2 3,752

TRIO

2,9,10 1,030

FIRST 4

2,9,10,14 27,804

QUARTET

10,9,2,14 199,987

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,10/2,9,10 955,122

9TH DOUBLE

4/9 427

4/10 524

SIX UP

6,10/2,9/5,8/8,11/4,10/9,10 14,291

10/9/8/11/4/10 546,941

1 [Z Purton]

5 [T P Yung]

TREBLE

11/4/9 969

11/4/10 1,038