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Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 16:48

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly 1.34.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 5 1.4 2
2 0 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 1 31.0 2
3 0 GOLDEN EMPIRE Led early L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 39.0 2-1/2
4 0 CAPTAIN WIN Closed strongly V/XB/TT1 H Bentley · P C Ng 13 9.7 2-3/4
6 0 LOOKING COOL PC M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 32.0 3-1/2
7 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT K C Leung · L Ho 11 27.0 3-1/2
8 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 14 132.0 3-3/4
9 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE B L Currie · A T Millard 2 48.0 3-3/4
10 0 ROUND THE EARTH B C Y Ho · D J Hall 12 49.0 4
11 0 POWERFUL WINGS B H Bowman · P F Yiu 3 5.4 5
12 0 DEAR SIBLING B1 M F Poon · K L Man 6 177.0 6
14 0 PEGASUS HERO H R Maia · Y S Tsui 9 220.0 12-1/4
— 0 KASA PAPA TT C L Chau · T P Yung — 58.0 10
— 0 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly SR/CP1 J McNeil · D J Whyte — 42.0 3-1/2
— 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE V Borges · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with ENTRUSTED second and GOLDEN EMPIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET ENCOUNTER—2. ENTRUSTED+2L3. GOLDEN EMPIRE+2.5L4. CAPTAIN WIN+2.75L6. LOOKING COOL+3.5L7. HAPPY DAILY+3.5L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3.75L9. GIFT OF LIFELINE+3.75L10. ROUND THE EARTH+4L11. POWERFUL WINGS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SWEET ENCOUNTER (40.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER 40.5% 2.47 1
2 0 POWERFUL WINGS 17.0% 5.87 11
3 0 LOOKING COOL 6.0% 16.78 6
4 0 CAPTAIN WIN 5.2% 19.40 4
5 0 HAPPY DAILY 4.3% 23.22 7
6 0 GIFT OF LIFELINE 4.2% 23.63 9
7 0 PRINCE ALEX 4.2% 23.72 —
8 0 ENTRUSTED 4.2% 24.08 2
9 0 KASA PAPA 3.6% 28.14 —
10 0 GOLDEN EMPIRE 3.5% 28.26 3
11 0 ROUND THE EARTH 2.4% 41.94 10
12 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 2.2% 45.94 8
13 0 DEAR SIBLING 2.0% 49.61 12
14 0 PEGASUS HERO 0.8% 132.91 14
SWEET ENCOUNTER — wonPOWERFUL WINGSLOOKING COOLCAPTAIN WINHAPPY DAILYGIFT OF LIFELINEPRINCE ALEXENTRUSTEDKASA PAPAGOLDEN EMPIREROUND THE EARTHINVINCIBLE MISSILEDEAR SIBLINGPEGASUS HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 14.5

PLACE

4 42.5

8 41

11 11

QUINELLA

8,11 182

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 591.5

4,11 63.5

8,11 64

FORECAST

11,8 168

TIERCE

11,8,4 3,246

TRIO

4,8,11 1,388

FIRST 4

1,4,8,11 1,693

QUARTET

11,8,4,1 20,771

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 14.5

A3 —

7TH DOUBLE

8/8 160.5

8/11 50.5