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Sha Tin · 2022-11-27 · 15:16

Race 5

Class 3 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. FIERY DIAMOND, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 3-3/4, with WINNING ICEY second and RED DESERT third. The 2.7 favourite MIDORI BEAUTY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FIERY DIAMOND 1.08.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 1 16.0 3-3/4
2 6 WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 3 18.0 3-3/4
3 4 RED DESERT B A Hamelin · J Size 2 7.0 4
4 5 MIDORI BEAUTY TT Z Purton · W Y So 5 2.7 4-3/4
5 7 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 6 39.0 5-1/2
6 3 LIGHTNING BOLT L Hewitson · C S Shum 7 17.0 6-1/2
7 1 MAN STAR V H Bowman · K H Ting 4 6.1 7-3/4
8 9 TRADER CP/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 9 7.9 11-1/4
9 12 CALL ME TEDDY TT H N Wong · C W Chang 8 14.0 14-1/4
10 2 COPARTNER AMBITION CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 33.0 22-1/2
11 11 SPARKLING KNIGHT V Borges · C H Yip 12 82.0 30-1/4
12 8 JOLLY RULER M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 9.2 33

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIERY DIAMOND2. WINNING ICEY+3.75L3. RED DESERT+4L4. MIDORI BEAUTY+4.75L5. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+5.5L6. LIGHTNING BOLT+6.5L7. MAN STAR+7.75L8. TRADER+11.25L9. CALL ME TEDDY+14.25L10. COPARTNER AMBITION+22.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MIDORI BEAUTY (25.9%) finished 4th — the winner FIERY DIAMOND was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MIDORI BEAUTY 25.9% 3.86 4
2 6 WINNING ICEY 14.0% 7.14 2
3 10 FIERY DIAMOND 12.1% 8.25 1
4 1 MAN STAR 11.6% 8.62 7
5 8 JOLLY RULER 6.8% 14.80 12
6 2 COPARTNER AMBITION 5.8% 17.11 10
7 9 TRADER 5.5% 18.03 8
8 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 4.7% 21.46 6
9 4 RED DESERT 4.5% 22.02 3
10 12 CALL ME TEDDY 4.2% 23.64 9
11 7 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 2.6% 38.15 5
12 11 SPARKLING KNIGHT 2.2% 46.14 11
MIDORI BEAUTYWINNING ICEYFIERY DIAMOND — wonMAN STARJOLLY RULERCOPARTNER AMBITIONTRADERLIGHTNING BOLTRED DESERTCALL ME TEDDYEVERYONE'S VICTORYSPARKLING KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 168

PLACE

4 21

6 42.5

10 41.5

QUINELLA

6,10 786.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 195.5

4,10 145

6,10 198.5

FORECAST

10,6 1,549

TIERCE

10,6,4 13,792

TRIO

4,6,10 2,018

FIRST 4

4,5,6,10 867

QUARTET

10,6,4,5 32,283

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 34

A3

4TH DOUBLE

4/6 64.5

4/10 367