Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 13:31
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with BRILLIANT LIFE second and BRAVE DREAMS third. The 3.1 favourite BRAVE DREAMS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HAPPY FAT CAT PC 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 6 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | BRILLIANT LIFE B2 S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 1 | 6.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | BRAVE DREAMS H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 3.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | VALHALLA B/XB/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 4 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | STAR ASCENSION XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 5.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SNOWALOT B L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 10 | 9.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | EVER FORCE B/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 3 | 20.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | GEM OF SOUTH CHINA M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 76.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 2 | 7.3 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | MAGIC SUPREME B/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 9 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | FLYING GALLOP TT1 H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 11 | 76.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | TURTLE AGAIN H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 12 | 235.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BRAVE DREAMS | 23.3% | 4.28 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | STAR ASCENSION | 21.2% | 4.72 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 8.6% | 11.69 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | BRILLIANT LIFE | 8.2% | 12.16 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | FLYING GALLOP | 8.0% | 12.46 | 11 |
| 6 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR | 6.7% | 15.02 | 9 |
| 7 | 11 | SNOWALOT | 6.1% | 16.44 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | VALHALLA | 5.5% | 18.35 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | EVER FORCE | 5.0% | 20.02 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | MAGIC SUPREME | 4.6% | 21.68 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | GEM OF SOUTH CHINA | 2.0% | 50.75 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | TURTLE AGAIN | 0.9% | 111.96 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 141
PLACE
2 13.5
4 25.5
10 42
QUINELLA
4,10 465
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 61.5
2,10 99.5
4,10 152
FORECAST
10,4 1,398
TIERCE
10,4,2 5,509
TRIO
2,4,10 490
FIRST 4
2,4,9,10 1,646
QUARTET
10,4,2,9 59,712
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/4 38
4/10 649
3 PICK 1
A3 33
A1 —
A2 —