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Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 14:31

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CHILLI BABA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by NOSE, with INNOCONSTRUCTION second and FLYING HIGH third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CHILLI BABA B1 0.57.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 14 2.2 NOSE
2 6 INNOCONSTRUCTION TT1 H N Wong · K W Lui 4 105.0 NOSE
3 3 FLYING HIGH TT L Ferraris · W Y So 1 20.0 1/2
4 1 SPARKLING KNIGHT Y L Chung · C H Yip 13 5.1 1-3/4
5 11 TIMESTORM XB/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 7 28.0 3-1/4
6 2 NUNCHUKS TT K H Chan · C Fownes 12 49.0 4
7 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT K Teetan · K L Man 9 14.0 4
8 14 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 22.0 4-1/4
9 12 YOO YOO KNIGHT H C L Chau · P C Ng 3 124.0 5-1/2
10 10 SOARING PENGSHAN TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 19.0 6
11 7 ORIENTAL SPIRIT CP1 H Bowman · D A Hayes 10 14.0 6-1/4
12 9 RATTAN WORLD B1/XB1/TT1 S De Sousa · J Richards 11 33.0 6-1/4
13 8 PRECISION GOAL Z Purton · T P Yung 8 7.9 7-1/2
14 4 BEAT HOLLOW H K C Leung · Y S Tsui 6 18.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILLI BABA2. INNOCONSTRUCTION+0.05L3. FLYING HIGH+0.5L4. SPARKLING KNIGHT+1.75L5. TIMESTORM+3.25L6. NUNCHUKS+4L7. KOWLOON EAST STAR+4L8. DOUBLE SHOW+4.25L9. YOO YOO KNIGHT+5.5L10. SOARING PENGSHAN+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PRECISION GOAL (25.2%) finished 13th — the winner CHILLI BABA was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 PRECISION GOAL 25.2% 3.97 13
2 3 FLYING HIGH 14.3% 6.98 3
3 9 RATTAN WORLD 9.0% 11.07 12
4 10 SOARING PENGSHAN 7.6% 13.12 10
5 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR 7.3% 13.73 7
6 5 CHILLI BABA 6.9% 14.48 1
7 14 DOUBLE SHOW 6.8% 14.65 8
8 7 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 5.3% 18.71 11
9 11 TIMESTORM 4.3% 23.14 5
10 2 NUNCHUKS 3.5% 28.30 6
11 4 BEAT HOLLOW 2.8% 35.09 14
12 6 INNOCONSTRUCTION 2.5% 39.93 2
13 1 SPARKLING KNIGHT 2.4% 41.77 4
14 12 YOO YOO KNIGHT 1.9% 52.63 9
PRECISION GOALFLYING HIGHRATTAN WORLDSOARING PENGSHANKOWLOON EAST STARCHILLI BABA — wonDOUBLE SHOWORIENTAL SPIRITTIMESTORMNUNCHUKSBEAT HOLLOWINNOCONSTRUCTIONSPARKLING KNIGHTYOO YOO KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 22.5

PLACE

3 46

5 13.5

6 206.5

QUINELLA

5,6 1,106.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 83.5

3,6 1,164

5,6 376

FORECAST

5,6 1,053

TIERCE

5,6,3 11,622

TRIO

3,5,6 3,895

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 3,430

QUARTET

5,6,3,1 68,591

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,6/3,5,6 43,621

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

6/5 57

6/6 371