Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 14:01
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPREME LUCKY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with BABY CRYSTAL second and VICTORY SCHOLARS third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUPREME LUCKY B-/TT 1.09.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 10 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | BABY CRYSTAL Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | VICTORY SCHOLARS V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 4 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | THUNDERBOLTAURUS H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 8 | 9.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO H-/V-/SR2 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 36.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA FOREST B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 45.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | MARVEL DRAGON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 9.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | MEGA BONUS V A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 2 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | STARRY NIGHT B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 13.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BRILLIANT PIONEER H1 S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 1 | 87.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | BLAZING SUN H-/P-/XB/B1/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 5 | 127.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | HAPPY FOREVER XB/TT R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 11 | 118.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BABY CRYSTAL | 25.5% | 3.93 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 13.0% | 7.67 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPREME LUCKY | 12.7% | 7.87 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | MEGA BONUS | 10.2% | 9.84 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | THUNDERBOLTAURUS | 9.8% | 10.20 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | MARVEL DRAGON | 7.5% | 13.29 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | STARRY NIGHT | 5.6% | 17.78 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | CALIFORNIA FOREST | 5.1% | 19.75 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO | 3.7% | 27.38 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 3.5% | 28.40 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | BLAZING SUN | 2.0% | 51.16 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | HAPPY FOREVER | 1.5% | 68.00 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 25.5
PLACE
3 16.5
4 16.5
6 12
QUINELLA
4,6 76
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 40
3,6 31.5
4,6 31.5
FORECAST
6,4 150
TIERCE
6,4,3 439
TRIO
3,4,6 112
FIRST 4
3,4,6,7 172
QUARTET
6,4,3,7 2,355
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/4 152.5
10/6 577