Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 16:06

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 6 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with HEALTHY HAPPY second and THE GOLDEN SCENERY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.43

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	LUCKY SWEYNESSE Closed strongly 1.21.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	6	135 lb	1.6	1-1/4
2	4	HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	5	123 lb	9.7	1-1/4
3	7	THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz	H Bentley	A S Cruz	3	116 lb	9.0	2-1/4
4	1	BEAUTY JOY H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	1	135 lb	7.9	2-1/2
5	5	BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	4	118 lb	9.6	4
6	6	FANTASTIC TREASURE CP2/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes	C Y Ho	D A Hayes	2	117 lb	7.3	4-1/2
—	3	MORE THAN THIS K C Leung · C S Shum	K C Leung	C S Shum	—	126 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (44.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	LUCKY SWEYNESSE	44.9%	2.23	1	1.6
2	4	HEALTHY HAPPY	15.3%	6.55	2	9.7
3	5	BLAZE WARRIOR	13.5%	7.40	5	9.6
4	1	BEAUTY JOY	11.5%	8.69	4	7.9
5	6	FANTASTIC TREASURE	9.5%	10.56	6	7.3
6	7	THE GOLDEN SCENERY	5.3%	18.83	3	9.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 16

PLACE

2 13

4 30

QUINELLA

2,4 66.5

- —

FORECAST

2,4 88

TIERCE

2,4,7 463

TRIO

2,4,7 182

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 88

QUARTET

2,4,7,1 1,136

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/2,4,7 59,052

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

3/2 185.5

3/4 121.5

← Race 7 Race 9 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99