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Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 13:01

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly TT 1.22.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting 3 2.7 4-1/2
2 0 SMART FOLKS Led early B/SR1 L Ferraris · C W Chang 12 14.0 4-1/2
3 0 FORTUNE MARBO Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 1 11.0 5-1/2
4 0 TEAM GOODLUCK Closed strongly CP/TT L Currie · W Y So 2 10.0 5-3/4
5 0 APEX TOP B K Teetan · A T Millard 13 7.7 6
6 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 8 40.0 8
7 0 SPICY SKEWER CP-/B1 K C Leung · K L Man 9 16.0 8
8 0 COMMON ROOM Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 14 54.0 10-1/4
9 0 HO HO JUNIOR B- C Y Ho · D J Hall 4 37.0 10-1/2
10 0 SHANGHAI POWER B C Wong · Y S Tsui 6 112.0 13-1/4
11 0 ERNEST FEELING B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 7 8.0 13-1/4
12 0 LEISURE AND GOLD E/XB/B1 A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 129.0 13-1/4
13 0 LE PLUS VITE XB/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng 5 6.1 17-1/4
14 0 THIS IS GUTS CP1/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 11 33.0 18-3/4
— 0 BRAVE POWER H Bowman · A S Cruz — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIVINE ERA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 4-1/2, with SMART FOLKS second and FORTUNE MARBO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVINE ERA—2. SMART FOLKS+4.5L3. FORTUNE MARBO+5.5L4. TEAM GOODLUCK+5.75L5. APEX TOP+6L6. TSUEN WAN GLORY+8L7. SPICY SKEWER+8L8. COMMON ROOM+10.25L9. HO HO JUNIOR+10.5L10. SHANGHAI POWER+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick DIVINE ERA (21.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DIVINE ERA 21.6% 4.62 1
2 0 LE PLUS VITE 17.2% 5.81 13
3 0 TEAM GOODLUCK 8.6% 11.63 4
4 0 APEX TOP 8.5% 11.74 5
5 0 FORTUNE MARBO 6.3% 15.97 3
6 0 ERNEST FEELING 6.1% 16.44 11
7 0 SMART FOLKS 5.5% 18.32 2
8 0 SHANGHAI POWER 5.4% 18.67 10
9 0 COMMON ROOM 4.3% 23.21 8
10 0 THIS IS GUTS 4.3% 23.36 14
11 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY 3.8% 26.22 6
12 0 SPICY SKEWER 3.7% 27.04 7
13 0 HO HO JUNIOR 2.9% 34.90 9
14 0 LEISURE AND GOLD 1.9% 51.72 12
DIVINE ERA — wonLE PLUS VITETEAM GOODLUCKAPEX TOPFORTUNE MARBOERNEST FEELINGSMART FOLKSSHANGHAI POWERCOMMON ROOMTHIS IS GUTSTSUEN WAN GLORYSPICY SKEWERHO HO JUNIORLEISURE AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 27.5

PLACE

4 15

12 30

14 37.5

QUINELLA

4,12 233.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 89

4,14 87

12,14 212

FORECAST

4,12 322

TIERCE

4,12,14 2,989

TRIO

4,12,14 675

FIRST 4

4,6,12,14 1,498

QUARTET

4,12,14,6 20,292

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/4 172.5

3/12 162

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 19

A2 —