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Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 15:03

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 COMING PATCH Closed strongly 1.35.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 40.0 SH
2 0 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 14 14.0 SH
3 0 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly K Teetan · T P Yung 4 5.8 1-1/2
5 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 1 7.7 2-1/4
6 0 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 24.0 2-3/4
7 0 OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 13 9.7 3
8 0 IRON WILL B/TT R Maia · C S Shum 7 28.0 3-1/4
9 0 OSCAR GLORY V Y L Chung · F C Lor 6 5.8 3-1/4
10 0 GOOD NEWS B/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 7.7 5-1/4
11 0 RED TITAN Led early TT Z Purton · J Size 10 3.5 7-1/4
12 0 GENERAL ACE C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 42.0 7-1/2
13 0 MAXIMIZE HEART B C Wong · C H Yip 12 79.0 7-3/4
14 0 CLASSIC ARCHI B/TT H N Wong · D J Whyte 2 174.0 13
— 0 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B1 C L Chau · C W Chang — 144.0 1-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. COMING PATCH, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with FLYING MOJITO second and DRAGON PRIDE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite RED TITAN finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COMING PATCH—2. FLYING MOJITO+0.1L3. DRAGON PRIDE+1.5L5. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.25L6. ONE HEART ONE+2.75L7. OVER THE MOON+3L8. IRON WILL+3.25L9. OSCAR GLORY+3.25L10. GOOD NEWS+5.25L11. RED TITAN+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURQUOISE ALPHA (19.2%) finished 5th — the winner COMING PATCH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 19.2% 5.22 5
2 0 RED TITAN 18.8% 5.33 11
3 0 GOOD NEWS 10.4% 9.63 10
4 0 OVER THE MOON 9.8% 10.24 7
5 0 OSCAR GLORY 9.6% 10.45 9
6 0 DRAGON PRIDE 9.5% 10.53 3
7 0 COMING PATCH 5.3% 18.82 1
8 0 FLYING MOJITO 4.6% 21.60 2
9 0 ONE HEART ONE 3.2% 30.79 6
10 0 MAXIMIZE HEART 2.7% 37.05 13
11 0 IRON WILL 2.4% 40.92 8
12 0 GENERAL ACE 2.1% 47.61 12
13 0 CLASSIC ARCHI 1.3% 78.37 14
14 0 FOREVER FOLKS 1.2% 86.85 —
TURQUOISE ALPHARED TITANGOOD NEWSOVER THE MOONOSCAR GLORYDRAGON PRIDECOMING PATCH — wonFLYING MOJITOONE HEART ONEMAXIMIZE HEARTIRON WILLGENERAL ACECLASSIC ARCHIFOREVER FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 401

PLACE

6 76

10 33.5

13 19

QUINELLA

6,10 1,944

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 528.5

6,13 296

10,13 126

FORECAST

6,10 3,611

TIERCE

6,10,13 20,641

TRIO

6,10,13 3,649

FIRST 4

6,7,10,13 45,661

QUARTET

6,10,13,7 1,486,838

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31

A2 —

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

5/6 706

5/10 89.5