Sha Tin · 2023-01-01 · 15:03

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. COMING PATCH, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with FLYING MOJITO second and DRAGON PRIDE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite RED TITAN finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.35.29

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	COMING PATCH Closed strongly 1.35.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting	A Hamelin	K H Ting	8	129 lb	40.0	SH
2	10	FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall	L Ferraris	D J Hall	14	123 lb	14.0	SH
3	13	DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly K Teetan · T P Yung	K Teetan	T P Yung	4	118 lb	5.8	1-1/2
4	7	FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B1 C L Chau · C W Chang	C L Chau	C W Chang	5	125 lb	144.0	1-3/4
5	4	TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng	S De Sousa	P C Ng	1	131 lb	7.7	2-1/4
6	8	ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	11	125 lb	24.0	2-3/4
7	12	OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes	H Bentley	C Fownes	13	121 lb	9.7	3
8	11	IRON WILL B/TT R Maia · C S Shum	R Maia	C S Shum	7	123 lb	28.0	3-1/4
9	1	OSCAR GLORY V Y L Chung · F C Lor	Y L Chung	F C Lor	6	125 lb	5.8	3-1/4
10	3	GOOD NEWS B/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	9	133 lb	7.7	5-1/4
11	5	RED TITAN Led early TT Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	10	130 lb	3.5	7-1/4
12	9	GENERAL ACE C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	3	124 lb	42.0	7-1/2
13	14	MAXIMIZE HEART B C Wong · C H Yip	C Wong	C H Yip	12	111 lb	79.0	7-3/4
14	2	CLASSIC ARCHI B/TT H N Wong · D J Whyte	H N Wong	D J Whyte	2	130 lb	174.0	13

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick TURQUOISE ALPHA (19.2%) finished 5th — the winner COMING PATCH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	TURQUOISE ALPHA	19.2%	5.22	5	7.7
2	5	RED TITAN	18.8%	5.33	11	3.5
3	3	GOOD NEWS	10.4%	9.63	10	7.7
4	12	OVER THE MOON	9.8%	10.24	7	9.7
5	1	OSCAR GLORY	9.6%	10.45	9	5.8
6	13	DRAGON PRIDE	9.5%	10.53	3	5.8
7	6	COMING PATCH	5.3%	18.82	1	40.0
8	10	FLYING MOJITO	4.6%	21.60	2	14.0
9	8	ONE HEART ONE	3.2%	30.79	6	24.0
10	14	MAXIMIZE HEART	2.7%	37.05	13	79.0
11	11	IRON WILL	2.4%	40.92	8	28.0
12	9	GENERAL ACE	2.1%	47.61	12	42.0
13	2	CLASSIC ARCHI	1.3%	78.37	14	174.0
14	7	FOREVER FOLKS	1.2%	86.85	4	144.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 401

PLACE

6 76

10 33.5

13 19

QUINELLA

6,10 1,944

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 528.5

6,13 296

10,13 126

FORECAST

6,10 3,611

TIERCE

6,10,13 20,641

TRIO

6,10,13 3,649

FIRST 4

6,7,10,13 45,661

QUARTET

6,10,13,7 1,486,838

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 31

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

5/6 706

5/10 89.5

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