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Sha Tin · 2023-01-08 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.37.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.37.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 7 3.6 1/2
2 0 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 8 4.8 1/2
3 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 19.0 1-1/2
4 0 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 23.0 2-1/2
5 0 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 49.0 2-3/4
6 0 SAVAQUIN P2 K Teetan · J Size 1 12.0 3
7 0 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly A Badel · T P Yung 2 2.6 3-1/2
8 0 KINGS SHIELD B Z Purton · F C Lor 6 6.5 41-1/4
— 0 THE ROCK M L Yeung · C Fownes — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-08 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with APACHE PASS second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite HANDSOME TWELVE finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE—2. APACHE PASS+0.5L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1.5L4. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+2.5L5. CALIFORNIA TEN+2.75L6. SAVAQUIN+3L7. HANDSOME TWELVE+3.5L8. KINGS SHIELD+41.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HANDSOME TWELVE (37.8%) finished 7th — the winner CHANCHENG PRINCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HANDSOME TWELVE 37.8% 2.65 7
2 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE 10.6% 9.48 1
3 0 APACHE PASS 10.1% 9.90 2
4 0 KINGS SHIELD 10.1% 9.92 8
5 0 SAVAQUIN 9.8% 10.16 6
6 0 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 9.2% 10.89 4
7 0 TELECOM FIGHTERS 6.6% 15.06 3
8 0 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.8% 17.17 5
HANDSOME TWELVECHANCHENG PRINCE — wonAPACHE PASSKINGS SHIELDSAVAQUINEVERYONE'S DELIGHTTELECOM FIGHTERSCALIFORNIA TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 36

PLACE

2 38.5

5 15

7 15

QUINELLA

5,7 78

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 120

2,7 68.5

5,7 31

FORECAST

7,5 98

TIERCE

7,5,2 1,225

TRIO

2,5,7 350

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 927

QUARTET

7,5,2,4 11,395

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,14/2,5,7 100,731

2ND DOUBLE

4/5 40.5

4/7 198

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 19.5

A1 —