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Sha Tin · 2023-01-08 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-08 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with APACHE PASS second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite HANDSOME TWELVE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.37.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.37.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 7 3.6 1/2
2 5 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 8 4.8 1/2
3 2 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 19.0 1-1/2
4 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 23.0 2-1/2
5 8 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 49.0 2-3/4
6 3 SAVAQUIN P2 K Teetan · J Size 1 12.0 3
7 9 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly A Badel · T P Yung 2 2.6 3-1/2
8 1 KINGS SHIELD B Z Purton · F C Lor 6 6.5 41-1/4
6 THE ROCK M L Yeung · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE2. APACHE PASS+0.5L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1.5L4. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+2.5L5. CALIFORNIA TEN+2.75L6. SAVAQUIN+3L7. HANDSOME TWELVE+3.5L8. KINGS SHIELD+41.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HANDSOME TWELVE (37.8%) finished 7th — the winner CHANCHENG PRINCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 HANDSOME TWELVE 37.8% 2.65 7
2 7 CHANCHENG PRINCE 10.6% 9.48 1
3 5 APACHE PASS 10.1% 9.90 2
4 1 KINGS SHIELD 10.1% 9.92 8
5 3 SAVAQUIN 9.8% 10.16 6
6 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 9.2% 10.89 4
7 2 TELECOM FIGHTERS 6.6% 15.06 3
8 8 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.8% 17.17 5
HANDSOME TWELVECHANCHENG PRINCE — wonAPACHE PASSKINGS SHIELDSAVAQUINEVERYONE'S DELIGHTTELECOM FIGHTERSCALIFORNIA TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 36

PLACE

2 38.5

5 15

7 15

QUINELLA

5,7 78

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 120

2,7 68.5

5,7 31

FORECAST

7,5 98

TIERCE

7,5,2 1,225

TRIO

2,5,7 350

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 927

QUARTET

7,5,2,4 11,395

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,14/2,5,7 100,731

2ND DOUBLE

4/5 40.5

4/7 198

3 PICK 1

A2 19.5

A1

A3