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Sha Tin · 2023-01-08 · 17:13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SINBA Closed strongly B/TT1 1.21.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Richards 1 14.0 1
2 0 AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly H Z Purton · L Ho 3 5.3 1
3 0 CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 172.0 2-1/4
4 0 COPARTNER AMBITION Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 11.0 3-1/2
5 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P C Ng 5 7.4 3-1/2
6 0 SHINING GEM Closed strongly B R Maia · P F Yiu 2 42.0 4-3/4
7 0 GUMMY GUMMY C L Chau · T P Yung 4 55.0 5
8 0 NORDIC DRAGON TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 1.8 5
9 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man 14 61.0 6-1/4
10 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS B/TT H Bowman · J Size 13 12.0 6-3/4
11 0 ROMAN TURBO B/XB1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 10 41.0 8-1/4
12 0 TRAVEL GOLF SR/TT C Wong · C H Yip 7 328.0 10
13 0 GALLANT CROWN B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard 9 85.0 12-1/4
14 0 PEGASUS HERO H H N Wong · Y S Tsui 6 308.0 12-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SINBA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Richards, won by 1, with AMAZING VICTORY second and CELTIC TIMES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite NORDIC DRAGON finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SINBA—2. AMAZING VICTORY+1L3. CELTIC TIMES+2.25L4. COPARTNER AMBITION+3.5L5. STUNNING IMPACT+3.5L6. SHINING GEM+4.75L7. GUMMY GUMMY+5L8. NORDIC DRAGON+5L9. COMPASSION SPIRIT+6.25L10. TEMPEST EXPRESS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NORDIC DRAGON (31.4%) finished 8th — the winner SINBA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 NORDIC DRAGON 31.4% 3.18 8
2 0 AMAZING VICTORY 21.0% 4.77 2
3 0 STUNNING IMPACT 18.0% 5.57 5
4 0 SINBA 4.3% 23.19 1
5 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS 4.3% 23.47 10
6 0 GUMMY GUMMY 4.1% 24.19 7
7 0 COPARTNER AMBITION 3.7% 26.84 4
8 0 ROMAN TURBO 2.9% 34.19 11
9 0 GALLANT CROWN 2.9% 34.85 13
10 0 SHINING GEM 2.7% 37.02 6
11 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.6% 38.68 9
12 0 TRAVEL GOLF 0.8% 123.86 12
13 0 CELTIC TIMES 0.7% 137.28 3
14 0 PEGASUS HERO 0.6% 172.98 14
NORDIC DRAGONAMAZING VICTORYSTUNNING IMPACTSINBA — wonTEMPEST EXPRESSGUMMY GUMMYCOPARTNER AMBITIONROMAN TURBOGALLANT CROWNSHINING GEMCOMPASSION SPIRITTRAVEL GOLFCELTIC TIMESPEGASUS HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 143.5

PLACE

2 16.5

8 37

11 244

QUINELLA

2,8 323

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 95

2,11 1,120.5

8,11 2,253

FORECAST

8,2 1,166

TIERCE

8,2,11 98,050

TRIO

2,8,11 13,276

FIRST 4

2,3,8,11 39,126

QUARTET

8,2,11,3 1,130,005

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 35

A1 —

A3 —

9TH DOUBLE

3/2 65

3/8 1,393.5