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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 12:31

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY CRYSTAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by HD, with SNOWALOT second and SOARING TOWER third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BABY CRYSTAL 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 7 1.6 HD
2 11 SNOWALOT B A Badel · D A Hayes 4 6.6 HD
3 12 SOARING TOWER B V Borges · W Y So 1 51.0 1
4 5 CALL ME DANDY CP1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 10.0 2
5 1 MR VALIANT XB/H2 K Teetan · A T Millard 3 6.8 2-1/2
6 4 BRILLIANT LIFE B S De Sousa · C H Yip 6 11.0 3-3/4
7 6 M UNICORN H1/TT1 H Bentley · C Fownes 5 90.0 4-1/2
8 2 MR MAJESTIC H2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 34.0 6
9 7 RATTAN WORLD B/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 9 107.0 6-1/4
10 9 DRAGON KINGDOM H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 44.0 8-1/2
11 8 UNITED WE STAND V/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 11 43.0 9
12 10 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 70.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BABY CRYSTAL2. SNOWALOT+0.2L3. SOARING TOWER+1L4. CALL ME DANDY+2L5. MR VALIANT+2.5L6. BRILLIANT LIFE+3.75L7. M UNICORN+4.5L8. MR MAJESTIC+6L9. RATTAN WORLD+6.25L10. DRAGON KINGDOM+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BABY CRYSTAL (26.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BABY CRYSTAL 26.8% 3.73 1
2 4 BRILLIANT LIFE 17.0% 5.89 6
3 1 MR VALIANT 11.0% 9.11 5
4 5 CALL ME DANDY 8.2% 12.22 4
5 11 SNOWALOT 7.6% 13.24 2
6 8 UNITED WE STAND 7.0% 14.38 11
7 10 LUCKY RUBY 6.1% 16.44 12
8 12 SOARING TOWER 4.2% 23.87 3
9 6 M UNICORN 3.9% 25.56 7
10 2 MR MAJESTIC 3.5% 28.94 8
11 9 DRAGON KINGDOM 3.4% 29.14 10
12 7 RATTAN WORLD 1.4% 69.82 9
BABY CRYSTAL — wonBRILLIANT LIFEMR VALIANTCALL ME DANDYSNOWALOTUNITED WE STANDLUCKY RUBYSOARING TOWERM UNICORNMR MAJESTICDRAGON KINGDOMRATTAN WORLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 16.5

PLACE

3 10.1

11 18

12 81.5

QUINELLA

3,11 50

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 21.5

3,12 108

11,12 227

FORECAST

3,11 92

TIERCE

3,11,12 1,179

TRIO

3,11,12 309

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 716

QUARTET

3,11,12,5 6,591

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13

A2

A3