Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 12:31
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY CRYSTAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by HD, with SNOWALOT second and SOARING TOWER third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BABY CRYSTAL 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 1.6 | HD |
| 2 | 11 | SNOWALOT B A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 4 | 6.6 | HD |
| 3 | 12 | SOARING TOWER B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 1 | 51.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | CALL ME DANDY CP1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | MR VALIANT XB/H2 K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 3 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | BRILLIANT LIFE B S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | M UNICORN H1/TT1 H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 5 | 90.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | MR MAJESTIC H2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 34.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | RATTAN WORLD B/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 9 | 107.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | DRAGON KINGDOM H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 44.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | UNITED WE STAND V/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 11 | 43.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | LUCKY RUBY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 8 | 70.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BABY CRYSTAL | 26.8% | 3.73 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | BRILLIANT LIFE | 17.0% | 5.89 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | MR VALIANT | 11.0% | 9.11 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | CALL ME DANDY | 8.2% | 12.22 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | SNOWALOT | 7.6% | 13.24 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | UNITED WE STAND | 7.0% | 14.38 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | LUCKY RUBY | 6.1% | 16.44 | 12 |
| 8 | 12 | SOARING TOWER | 4.2% | 23.87 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | M UNICORN | 3.9% | 25.56 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | MR MAJESTIC | 3.5% | 28.94 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 3.4% | 29.14 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | RATTAN WORLD | 1.4% | 69.82 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 16.5
PLACE
3 10.1
11 18
12 81.5
QUINELLA
3,11 50
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 21.5
3,12 108
11,12 227
FORECAST
3,11 92
TIERCE
3,11,12 1,179
TRIO
3,11,12 309
FIRST 4
3,5,11,12 716
QUARTET
3,11,12,5 6,591
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 13
A2 —
A3 —