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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 16:43

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VICTOR THE WINNER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 4, with DINKUM second and DECISIVE TWELVE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 VICTOR THE WINNER TT 1.08.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 7 2.1 4
2 12 DINKUM CP1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 8.9 4
3 9 DECISIVE TWELVE TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 19.0 5
4 4 GOKO WIN B1 A Badel · C H Yip 6 17.0 5
5 8 ROMAN TURBO B/XB K H Chan · D J Hall 9 110.0 5-1/4
6 10 TAJ DRAGON S De Sousa · P C Ng 4 119.0 6-1/2
7 7 EXCELLENT DADDY TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 5 56.0 7-3/4
8 5 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 12 47.0 8-1/4
9 2 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 2 4.0 8-1/2
10 1 BRILLIANT WAY H/P/TT Z Purton · J Size 11 5.5 10-1/4
11 3 MAN STAR V H N Wong · K H Ting 1 133.0 11-1/4
12 11 TATTENHAM C L Chau · P C Ng 8 51.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTOR THE WINNER2. DINKUM+4L3. DECISIVE TWELVE+5L4. GOKO WIN+5L5. ROMAN TURBO+5.25L6. TAJ DRAGON+6.5L7. EXCELLENT DADDY+7.75L8. SMART IDEA+8.25L9. BEAUTY CHARGE+8.5L10. BRILLIANT WAY+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHARGE (20.9%) finished 9th — the winner VICTOR THE WINNER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEAUTY CHARGE 20.9% 4.78 9
2 6 VICTOR THE WINNER 19.2% 5.20 1
3 1 BRILLIANT WAY 16.5% 6.07 10
4 12 DINKUM 12.1% 8.25 2
5 9 DECISIVE TWELVE 9.7% 10.32 3
6 5 SMART IDEA 4.0% 25.09 8
7 7 EXCELLENT DADDY 3.8% 26.58 7
8 4 GOKO WIN 3.6% 27.73 4
9 3 MAN STAR 3.4% 29.70 11
10 11 TATTENHAM 2.6% 38.53 12
11 8 ROMAN TURBO 2.3% 43.18 5
12 10 TAJ DRAGON 1.9% 51.36 6
BEAUTY CHARGEVICTOR THE WINNER — wonBRILLIANT WAYDINKUMDECISIVE TWELVESMART IDEAEXCELLENT DADDYGOKO WINMAN STARTATTENHAMROMAN TURBOTAJ DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 21

PLACE

6 10.5

9 41

12 28.5

QUINELLA

6,12 96

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 59.5

6,12 37

9,12 166.5

FORECAST

6,12 154

TIERCE

6,12,9 1,325

TRIO

6,9,12 458

FIRST 4

4,6,9,12 1,020

QUARTET

6,12,9,4 11,644

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 13.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,10/6,9,12 27,885

8TH DOUBLE

10/6 170.5

10/12 109