Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 14:04
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. E BROTHER, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with FIGHTING STAR second and SMART LEADER third. The 2.4 favourite A AMERIC TE SPECSO finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | E BROTHER B/TT 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 7 | 5.5 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR B A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 24.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | SMART LEADER B/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 9 | 39.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | E RAINBOW TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | IMPERIAL MAGEE H/SR/XB1/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 51.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 2.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | NICETOBEMET M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 4.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | BLUE MARLIN H1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 9.6 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | EVER FORCE B/TT R Maia · J Richards | R Maia | J Richards | 8 | 28.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 1 | 24.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B1 C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 4 | 55.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | FLYING GALLOP TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 6 | 165.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 32.3% | 3.10 | 6 |
| 2 | 8 | E BROTHER | 16.7% | 6.00 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | NICETOBEMET | 11.5% | 8.71 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | E RAINBOW | 10.4% | 9.60 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | FIGHTING STAR | 6.0% | 16.54 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | SMART LEADER | 5.1% | 19.66 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | BLUE MARLIN | 4.7% | 21.09 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 4.6% | 21.72 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH | 3.4% | 29.54 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | EVER FORCE | 3.2% | 31.62 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | IMPERIAL MAGEE | 1.4% | 69.60 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | FLYING GALLOP | 0.7% | 141.10 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 55
PLACE
8 19.5
10 63.5
11 55.5
QUINELLA
8,11 565.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,10 223
8,11 167
10,11 415.5
FORECAST
8,11 845
TIERCE
8,11,10 11,949
TRIO
8,10,11 3,098
FIRST 4
8,9,10,11 2,654
QUARTET
8,11,10,9 48,164
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 26.5
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
12/8 327.5
12/11 189