Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 15:06
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. NICHOLSON RETURNS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with SMILING TIME second and WINNING STEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B 1.47.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 13 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 9 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 2 | 48.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 14 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 8 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 13 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 7.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | FOREVER GLORIOUS B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 9.4 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | HELENE ALLIBOR Led early B/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 11 | 44.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | OVER THE MOON B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | BOOM ALLIANCE B/XB/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | FOREVER FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 14.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | TYCOON JEWELLERY H/XB/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 6 | 44.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 3 | 10.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 16.6% | 6.02 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 15.9% | 6.28 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG | 12.2% | 8.18 | 14 |
| 4 | 3 | BOOM ALLIANCE | 11.8% | 8.46 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | SMILING TIME | 8.8% | 11.43 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | OVER THE MOON | 5.2% | 19.05 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 5.0% | 20.12 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | RED ELYSEES | 4.8% | 20.78 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | REACH GOAL | 4.8% | 21.05 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | HELENE ALLIBOR | 3.4% | 29.08 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | WINNING STEPS | 3.2% | 30.83 | 3 |
| 12 | 6 | FOREVER FOLKS | 2.8% | 35.40 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL | 2.8% | 36.15 | 8 |
| 14 | 7 | TYCOON JEWELLERY | 2.6% | 38.35 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 31.5
PLACE
1 16
2 27
9 85.5
QUINELLA
1,2 144.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 60
1,9 182.5
2,9 492.5
FORECAST
1,2 198
TIERCE
1,2,9 6,940
TRIO
1,2,9 2,009
FIRST 4
1,2,9,12 8,995
QUARTET
1,2,9,12 108,118
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 24
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
3/1 149.5
3/2 62