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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIVINE ERA, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with THUNDERBOLTAURUS second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite SINGAPORE SPIRIT finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.23.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly TT 1.23.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 9 5.7 1/2
2 10 THUNDERBOLTAURUS Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 10 6.3 1/2
3 1 ARIEL Led early L Hewitson · D A Hayes 13 98.0 3/4
4 4 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 14 24.0 2-1/4
5 8 LADY'S CHOICE H/P1 C Y Ho · C W Chang 2 21.0 2-1/2
6 3 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson 5 4.6 2-1/2
7 11 WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 7 29.0 3-1/4
8 7 CHOICERUS SR K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 24.0 4-1/4
9 13 YOUNG SPARKLE A Hamelin · A T Millard 6 50.0 5-1/4
10 5 BRILLIANT PIONEER Closed strongly H V Borges · C H Yip 11 122.0 5-3/4
11 9 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 3 3.3 5-3/4
12 2 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · P C Ng 12 21.0 6
13 6 FUNCTION PATCH H/TT S De Sousa · K W Lui 1 9.5 6-1/4
14 14 BLAZING SUN B/XB/TT R Maia · J Richards 8 110.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVINE ERA2. THUNDERBOLTAURUS+0.5L3. ARIEL+0.75L4. NUNCHUKS+2.25L5. LADY'S CHOICE+2.5L6. TURIN WARRIOR+2.5L7. WIN WIN+3.25L8. CHOICERUS+4.25L9. YOUNG SPARKLE+5.25L10. BRILLIANT PIONEER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURIN WARRIOR (29.3%) finished 6th — the winner DIVINE ERA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TURIN WARRIOR 29.3% 3.41 6
2 9 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 14.1% 7.09 11
3 12 DIVINE ERA 11.3% 8.87 1
4 10 THUNDERBOLTAURUS 8.7% 11.52 2
5 6 FUNCTION PATCH 8.4% 11.88 13
6 2 SPICY GRILL 6.6% 15.17 12
7 8 LADY'S CHOICE 5.7% 17.49 5
8 11 WIN WIN 4.1% 24.15 7
9 13 YOUNG SPARKLE 3.6% 28.06 9
10 4 NUNCHUKS 2.8% 35.63 4
11 7 CHOICERUS 1.7% 58.50 8
12 5 BRILLIANT PIONEER 1.3% 75.23 10
13 14 BLAZING SUN 1.3% 78.76 14
14 1 ARIEL 1.1% 93.31 3
TURIN WARRIORSINGAPORE SPIRITDIVINE ERA — wonTHUNDERBOLTAURUSFUNCTION PATCHSPICY GRILLLADY'S CHOICEWIN WINYOUNG SPARKLENUNCHUKSCHOICERUSBRILLIANT PIONEERBLAZING SUNARIEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 57.5

PLACE

1 197

10 20

12 24

QUINELLA

10,12 188

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 609.5

1,12 834

10,12 75.5

FORECAST

12,10 389

TIERCE

12,10,1 21,223

TRIO

1,10,12 5,561

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 31,209

QUARTET

12,10,1,4 327,436

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,14/1,10,12 1,385,824

2ND DOUBLE

10/10 67

10/12 446

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 26.5