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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly TT 1.23.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 9 5.7 1/2
2 0 THUNDERBOLTAURUS Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 10 6.3 1/2
3 0 ARIEL Led early L Hewitson · D A Hayes 13 98.0 3/4
4 0 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 14 24.0 2-1/4
6 0 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB Z Purton · R Gibson 5 4.6 2-1/2
7 0 WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 7 29.0 3-1/4
8 0 CHOICERUS SR K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 24.0 4-1/4
9 0 YOUNG SPARKLE A Hamelin · A T Millard 6 50.0 5-1/4
10 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER Closed strongly H V Borges · C H Yip 11 122.0 5-3/4
11 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 3 3.3 5-3/4
12 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · P C Ng 12 21.0 6
13 0 FUNCTION PATCH H/TT S De Sousa · K W Lui 1 9.5 6-1/4
14 0 BLAZING SUN B/XB/TT R Maia · J Richards 8 110.0 7-1/2
— 0 LADY'S CHOICE H/P1 C Y Ho · C W Chang — 21.0 2-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DIVINE ERA, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with THUNDERBOLTAURUS second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite SINGAPORE SPIRIT finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVINE ERA—2. THUNDERBOLTAURUS+0.5L3. ARIEL+0.75L4. NUNCHUKS+2.25L6. TURIN WARRIOR+2.5L7. WIN WIN+3.25L8. CHOICERUS+4.25L9. YOUNG SPARKLE+5.25L10. BRILLIANT PIONEER+5.75L11. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TURIN WARRIOR (29.3%) finished 6th — the winner DIVINE ERA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TURIN WARRIOR 29.3% 3.41 6
2 0 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 14.1% 7.09 11
3 0 DIVINE ERA 11.3% 8.87 1
4 0 THUNDERBOLTAURUS 8.7% 11.52 2
5 0 FUNCTION PATCH 8.4% 11.88 13
6 0 SPICY GRILL 6.6% 15.17 12
7 0 LADY'S CHOICE 5.7% 17.49 —
8 0 WIN WIN 4.1% 24.15 7
9 0 YOUNG SPARKLE 3.6% 28.06 9
10 0 NUNCHUKS 2.8% 35.63 4
11 0 CHOICERUS 1.7% 58.50 8
12 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER 1.3% 75.23 10
13 0 BLAZING SUN 1.3% 78.76 14
14 0 ARIEL 1.1% 93.31 3
TURIN WARRIORSINGAPORE SPIRITDIVINE ERA — wonTHUNDERBOLTAURUSFUNCTION PATCHSPICY GRILLLADY'S CHOICEWIN WINYOUNG SPARKLENUNCHUKSCHOICERUSBRILLIANT PIONEERBLAZING SUNARIEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 57.5

PLACE

1 197

10 20

12 24

QUINELLA

10,12 188

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 609.5

1,12 834

10,12 75.5

FORECAST

12,10 389

TIERCE

12,10,1 21,223

TRIO

1,10,12 5,561

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 31,209

QUARTET

12,10,1,4 327,436

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,14/1,10,12 1,385,824

2ND DOUBLE

10/10 67

10/12 446

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26.5