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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 14:36

Race 5

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K L Man 5 5.4 4
2 0 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 6 11.0 4
3 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 9.0 5
4 0 BARON ZEE B2/TT S De Sousa · R Gibson 13 15.0 5-1/2
5 0 MOONLUCK C L Chau · T P Yung 3 7.3 5-1/2
6 0 YOUNG EXPLORER Closed strongly B/H/XB1 A Badel · K H Ting 2 16.0 7
7 0 BOYS PARTY SR H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 6.1 7-1/4
8 0 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B M F Poon · W Y So 10 20.0 7-1/2
9 0 SMART COUSIN Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 14.0 8
10 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 14 5.9 8-1/2
11 0 SHINY TWO B/XB L Hewitson · P F Yiu 4 23.0 11-1/4
12 0 THIS IS CHARISMA V-/CP2/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 32.0 14
13 0 MISTER MONTE Led early CP H T Mo · C W Chang 1 39.0 17-1/2
14 0 TURF BRILLIANT B- K C Leung · L Ho 11 65.0 36-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GO GO SIXTEEN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K L Man, won by 4, with REGENCY MASTER second and SKY GEM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO GO SIXTEEN—2. REGENCY MASTER+4L3. SKY GEM+5L4. BARON ZEE+5.5L5. MOONLUCK+5.5L6. YOUNG EXPLORER+7L7. BOYS PARTY+7.25L8. OWNERS' STAR+7.5L9. SMART COUSIN+8L10. SUPERB DADDY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPERB DADDY (13.7%) finished 10th — the winner GO GO SIXTEEN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPERB DADDY 13.7% 7.28 10
2 0 SKY GEM 12.7% 7.90 3
3 0 BOYS PARTY 12.6% 7.93 7
4 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 10.4% 9.58 1
5 0 REGENCY MASTER 8.9% 11.22 2
6 0 BARON ZEE 7.9% 12.71 4
7 0 MOONLUCK 7.7% 13.04 5
8 0 YOUNG EXPLORER 5.9% 16.95 6
9 0 SMART COUSIN 5.8% 17.29 9
10 0 OWNERS' STAR 4.6% 21.61 8
11 0 SHINY TWO 4.1% 24.23 11
12 0 THIS IS CHARISMA 2.6% 38.09 12
13 0 TURF BRILLIANT 1.6% 63.60 14
14 0 MISTER MONTE 1.5% 67.75 13
SUPERB DADDYSKY GEMBOYS PARTYGO GO SIXTEEN — wonREGENCY MASTERBARON ZEEMOONLUCKYOUNG EXPLORERSMART COUSINOWNERS' STARSHINY TWOTHIS IS CHARISMATURF BRILLIANTMISTER MONTE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 54.5

PLACE

2 41.5

3 20.5

8 37.5

QUINELLA

2,3 286

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 128.5

2,8 195.5

3,8 110

FORECAST

3,2 579

TIERCE

3,2,8 5,364

TRIO

2,3,8 1,067

FIRST 4

2,3,8,9 3,859

QUARTET

3,2,8,9 67,850

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,11/2,3,8 442,855

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 28.5

4TH DOUBLE

8/2 161.5

8/3 289