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Sha Tin · 2023-01-24 · 16:08

Race 8

Class 1 GOOD 1400m Course C 10 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-24 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MR ASCENDENCY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with THE GOLDEN SCENERY second and BELUGA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite THE IRISHMAN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MR ASCENDENCY Closed strongly CP 1.21.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu 6 5.2 1
2 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 4 8.3 1
3 7 BELUGA H M F Poon · D J Hall 2 9.4 1-3/4
4 8 CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 1 5.1 1-3/4
5 3 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 5 15.0 2
6 6 THE IRISHMAN Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 3.7 2
7 2 BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · J Size 10 20.0 3-1/2
8 9 FAMILY FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang 7 57.0 5-1/4
9 5 WINNING DREAMER A Badel · F C Lor 3 49.0 6
10 1 HEALTHY HAPPY Led early V/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 9 5.4 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR ASCENDENCY2. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+1L3. BELUGA+1.75L4. CIRCUIT STELLAR+1.75L5. FANTASTIC TREASURE+2L6. THE IRISHMAN+2L7. BLAZE WARRIOR+3.5L8. FAMILY FOLKS+5.25L9. WINNING DREAMER+6L10. HEALTHY HAPPY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MR ASCENDENCY (17.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MR ASCENDENCY 17.4% 5.74 1
2 1 HEALTHY HAPPY 16.4% 6.11 10
3 7 BELUGA 14.0% 7.16 3
4 8 CIRCUIT STELLAR 12.4% 8.08 4
5 6 THE IRISHMAN 10.9% 9.17 6
6 2 BLAZE WARRIOR 7.3% 13.67 7
7 5 WINNING DREAMER 6.1% 16.31 9
8 9 FAMILY FOLKS 5.7% 17.52 8
9 4 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 5.2% 19.28 2
10 3 FANTASTIC TREASURE 4.6% 21.61 5
MR ASCENDENCY — wonHEALTHY HAPPYBELUGACIRCUIT STELLARTHE IRISHMANBLAZE WARRIORWINNING DREAMERFAMILY FOLKSTHE GOLDEN SCENERYFANTASTIC TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 52

PLACE

4 23

7 24

10 19.5

QUINELLA

4,10 197.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 95

4,10 63

7,10 85.5

FORECAST

10,4 479

TIERCE

10,4,7 3,159

TRIO

4,7,10 613

FIRST 4

4,7,8,10 558

QUARTET

10,4,7,8 11,976

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 26.5

A2

A3

7TH DOUBLE

6/4 102

6/10 469.5