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Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER DYNAMITE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with BEAUTY MISSILE second and PARTERRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite AMAZING VICTORY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly 1.22.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 2 13.0 N
2 8 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly B1 J Melham · F C Lor 7 13.0 N
3 10 PARTERRE Closed strongly H Bentley · A T Millard 1 9.0 3/4
4 7 STUNNING IMPACT B S De Sousa · P C Ng 9 11.0 3/4
5 3 BEAUTY INSPIRE Closed strongly J McDonald · J Size 12 9.7 3/4
6 1 AMAZING VICTORY H Z Purton · L Ho 3 3.3 3/4
7 11 TAMRA BLITZ Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 5.2 2
8 13 JADE PHOENIX Led early CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 56.0 2-1/4
9 9 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 31.0 4
10 2 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 24.0 4-1/4
11 12 CRYSTAL POWERFUL M F Poon · C S Shum 11 128.0 6-1/2
12 6 COPARTNER AMBITION CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 10.0 7-3/4
13 5 EN POINTE CP K Teetan · F C Lor 5 13.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER DYNAMITE2. BEAUTY MISSILE+0.05L3. PARTERRE+0.75L4. STUNNING IMPACT+0.75L5. BEAUTY INSPIRE+0.75L6. AMAZING VICTORY+0.75L7. TAMRA BLITZ+2L8. JADE PHOENIX+2.25L9. KASA PAPA+4L10. PERFECT TEAM+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick AMAZING VICTORY (24.9%) finished 6th — the winner SUPER DYNAMITE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AMAZING VICTORY 24.9% 4.01 6
2 5 EN POINTE 13.4% 7.44 13
3 11 TAMRA BLITZ 11.5% 8.68 7
4 7 STUNNING IMPACT 8.8% 11.35 4
5 4 SUPER DYNAMITE 7.1% 14.17 1
6 8 BEAUTY MISSILE 6.5% 15.41 2
7 10 PARTERRE 6.2% 16.14 3
8 6 COPARTNER AMBITION 5.3% 18.76 12
9 2 PERFECT TEAM 4.6% 21.67 10
10 3 BEAUTY INSPIRE 4.5% 22.27 5
11 13 JADE PHOENIX 4.5% 22.40 8
12 9 KASA PAPA 1.6% 60.83 9
13 12 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 1.0% 100.01 11
AMAZING VICTORYEN POINTETAMRA BLITZSTUNNING IMPACTSUPER DYNAMITE — wonBEAUTY MISSILEPARTERRECOPARTNER AMBITIONPERFECT TEAMBEAUTY INSPIREJADE PHOENIXKASA PAPACRYSTAL POWERFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 133

PLACE

4 43.5

8 42

10 27

QUINELLA

4,8 873.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 266

4,10 214

8,10 218.5

FORECAST

4,8 1,600

TIERCE

4,8,10 18,670

TRIO

4,8,10 3,117

FIRST 4

4,7,8,10 8,383

QUARTET

4,8,10,7 203,511

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 23

A2

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,11/4,8,10 2,423,488

9TH DOUBLE

11/4 2,132.5

11/8 374

SIX UP

1,9/4,5,14/1,2/5,9/10,11/4,8 12,379

9/5,14/1/9/11/4 3,279,219

10 [J Melham]

1 [J Size]

TREBLE

9/11/4 15,665

9/11/8 1,930