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Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JUNEAU FLASH, ridden by R Moore and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with INNOCONSTRUCTION second and CHEVAL VALIANT third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 JUNEAU FLASH 0.57.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · J Size 8 3.0 1/2
2 4 INNOCONSTRUCTION TT Z Purton · K W Lui 7 3.5 1/2
3 3 CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 7.2 3/4
4 9 HUGE WIN K Teetan · F C Lor 14 15.0 2-1/2
5 6 ATOMIC ENERGY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 77.0 2-3/4
6 13 MIGHTY VALOR CP/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 4 33.0 3
7 2 SUMMIT CHEERS TT M F Poon · D J Hall 13 10.0 3-1/2
8 10 I GIVE PC1/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 6 10.0 4
9 11 ACE TALENT H/TT J Melham · C Fownes 5 17.0 5
10 1 SPARKLING KNIGHT S De Sousa · C H Yip 2 19.0 7
11 8 PRECISION GOAL C L Chau · T P Yung 11 67.0 10
12 7 EASY TWO TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 10 43.0 10-3/4
13 12 GREAT FOR YOU H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 62.0 14
14 MODEST GENTLEMAN H N Wong · L Ho

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUNEAU FLASH2. INNOCONSTRUCTION+0.5L3. CHEVAL VALIANT+0.75L4. HUGE WIN+2.5L5. ATOMIC ENERGY+2.75L6. MIGHTY VALOR+3L7. SUMMIT CHEERS+3.5L8. I GIVE+4L9. ACE TALENT+5L10. SPARKLING KNIGHT+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick INNOCONSTRUCTION (27.8%) finished 2nd — the winner JUNEAU FLASH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 INNOCONSTRUCTION 27.8% 3.60 2
2 5 JUNEAU FLASH 14.1% 7.07 1
3 1 SPARKLING KNIGHT 10.7% 9.35 10
4 3 CHEVAL VALIANT 9.3% 10.73 3
5 11 ACE TALENT 7.7% 13.06 9
6 10 I GIVE 7.4% 13.58 8
7 9 HUGE WIN 6.5% 15.35 4
8 13 MIGHTY VALOR 5.2% 19.28 6
9 7 EASY TWO 3.4% 29.85 12
10 8 PRECISION GOAL 2.7% 36.65 11
11 2 SUMMIT CHEERS 2.3% 43.13 7
12 6 ATOMIC ENERGY 1.6% 64.24 5
13 12 GREAT FOR YOU 1.4% 73.25 13
INNOCONSTRUCTIONJUNEAU FLASH — wonSPARKLING KNIGHTCHEVAL VALIANTACE TALENTI GIVEHUGE WINMIGHTY VALOREASY TWOPRECISION GOALSUMMIT CHEERSATOMIC ENERGYGREAT FOR YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 30

PLACE

3 20

4 16.5

5 14

QUINELLA

4,5 61

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 51

3,5 42.5

4,5 31.5

FORECAST

5,4 122

TIERCE

5,4,3 353

TRIO

3,4,5 125

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 323

QUARTET

5,4,3,9 3,359

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/3,4,5,14 10,398

5TH DOUBLE

9/4 56

9/5,14 212.5

TRIPLE TRIO

6,9,11/1,3,9/3,4,5,14 7,644,554

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,9,11/1,3,9/Any Combination 138,614