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Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 17:18

Race 9

4YO GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was 4YO over 1600m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by J Melham and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with TUCHEL second and PACKING TREADMILL third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite PACKING TREADMILL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 VOYAGE BUBBLE Wire to wire CP 1.34.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Melham · P F Yiu 5 11.0 1-1/4
2 10 TUCHEL Closed strongly L Currie · J Size 6 22.0 1-1/4
3 3 PACKING TREADMILL SR Z Purton · K W Lui 8 4.0 2-3/4
4 1 CORDYCEPS SIX Closed strongly B- A Badel · R Gibson 13 22.0 3-3/4
5 7 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 12.0 4-1/4
6 8 SWORD POINT CP K C Leung · F C Lor 4 23.0 4-1/2
7 2 KEEFY S De Sousa · F C Lor 7 4.4 5-1/4
8 4 BEAUTYVERSE H/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 1 12.0 5-1/4
8 5 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly R Moore · J Size 2 4.6 5-1/4
10 12 LA CITY BLANCHE H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 10 57.0 5-1/4
11 14 BON'S A PEARLA Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 52.0 6-1/2
12 9 VIVA CHALEUR TT H Bowman · C Fownes 9 16.0 7-1/4
13 6 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 14 27.0 8-3/4
14 13 IVY LEAGUE SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 12 138.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE BUBBLE2. TUCHEL+1.25L3. PACKING TREADMILL+2.75L4. CORDYCEPS SIX+3.75L5. GALAXY WITNESS+4.25L6. SWORD POINT+4.5L7. KEEFY+5.25L8. BEAUTYVERSE+5.25L8. SWEET ENCOUNTER+5.25L10. LA CITY BLANCHE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SWEET ENCOUNTER (24.7%) finished 8th — the winner VOYAGE BUBBLE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SWEET ENCOUNTER 24.7% 4.04 8
2 2 KEEFY 14.6% 6.83 7
3 3 PACKING TREADMILL 13.5% 7.43 3
4 11 VOYAGE BUBBLE 9.4% 10.62 1
5 10 TUCHEL 6.8% 14.69 2
6 7 GALAXY WITNESS 6.7% 14.90 5
7 4 BEAUTYVERSE 6.4% 15.53 8
8 6 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 5.4% 18.48 13
9 8 SWORD POINT 3.0% 33.41 6
10 9 VIVA CHALEUR 3.0% 33.49 12
11 1 CORDYCEPS SIX 2.6% 38.64 4
12 14 BON'S A PEARLA 2.0% 49.19 11
13 12 LA CITY BLANCHE 1.2% 86.88 10
14 13 IVY LEAGUE 0.6% 159.16 14
SWEET ENCOUNTERKEEFYPACKING TREADMILLVOYAGE BUBBLE — wonTUCHELGALAXY WITNESSBEAUTYVERSEFLAGSHIP WARRIORSWORD POINTVIVA CHALEURCORDYCEPS SIXBON'S A PEARLALA CITY BLANCHEIVY LEAGUE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 115

PLACE

3 17

10 53

11 32.5

QUINELLA

10,11 970.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 152

3,11 80.5

10,11 285

FORECAST

11,10 2,139

TIERCE

11,10,3 9,489

TRIO

3,10,11 1,080

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 6,507

QUARTET

11,10,3,1 182,608

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 26.5

A2

A1

8TH DOUBLE

9/10 112.5

9/11 998