Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 17:18
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was 4YO over 1600m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by J Melham and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with TUCHEL second and PACKING TREADMILL third. The winner led throughout. The 4.0 favourite PACKING TREADMILL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VOYAGE BUBBLE Wire to wire CP 1.34.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Melham · P F Yiu | J Melham | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | TUCHEL Closed strongly L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 6 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | PACKING TREADMILL SR Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 4.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX Closed strongly B- A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 13 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SWORD POINT CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | KEEFY S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 7 | 4.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTYVERSE H/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz | J McDonald | A S Cruz | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 2 | 4.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | LA CITY BLANCHE H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 10 | 57.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | BON'S A PEARLA Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 52.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | VIVA CHALEUR TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 9 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 6 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 14 | 27.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | IVY LEAGUE SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 12 | 138.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 24.7% | 4.04 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | KEEFY | 14.6% | 6.83 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | PACKING TREADMILL | 13.5% | 7.43 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | VOYAGE BUBBLE | 9.4% | 10.62 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | TUCHEL | 6.8% | 14.69 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | GALAXY WITNESS | 6.7% | 14.90 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | BEAUTYVERSE | 6.4% | 15.53 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.48 | 13 |
| 9 | 8 | SWORD POINT | 3.0% | 33.41 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | VIVA CHALEUR | 3.0% | 33.49 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 2.6% | 38.64 | 4 |
| 12 | 14 | BON'S A PEARLA | 2.0% | 49.19 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 1.2% | 86.88 | 10 |
| 14 | 13 | IVY LEAGUE | 0.6% | 159.16 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 115
PLACE
3 17
10 53
11 32.5
QUINELLA
10,11 970.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 152
3,11 80.5
10,11 285
FORECAST
11,10 2,139
TIERCE
11,10,3 9,489
TRIO
3,10,11 1,080
FIRST 4
1,3,10,11 6,507
QUARTET
11,10,3,1 182,608
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 26.5
A2 —
A1 —
8TH DOUBLE
9/10 112.5
9/11 998