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Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY FOR ALL, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Richards, won by N, with EASY SNIP second and TRUST ME third. The 2.6 favourite FURTHER FORWARD finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HAPPY FOR ALL H1/TT1 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Richards 7 34.0 N
2 11 EASY SNIP B1 C L Chau · T P Yung 1 11.0 N
3 9 TRUST ME B/H H Bentley · C H Yip 12 6.5 1/2
4 1 STAR ASCENSION XB-/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 5 9.3 1-3/4
5 10 FINGERS CROSSED TT J Melham · J Size 13 14.0 3-1/4
6 13 DOUBLE SHOW B-/SR2/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 6 20.0 3-3/4
7 7 LOST CHILD H Bowman · C W Chang 2 7.9 4-1/4
8 3 DENFIELD TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 18.0 4-3/4
9 8 BEAT HOLLOW H K C Leung · Y S Tsui 3 12.0 5-1/4
10 12 ISLAND SHINE TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 56.0 5-3/4
11 4 FURTHER FORWARD TT1 Z Purton · K L Man 9 2.6 5-3/4
12 5 GOAL ORIENTED SR1/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 4 103.0 7-3/4
13 14 FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 14 57.0 7-3/4
14 2 SUPER DOBBIN B R Maia · A T Millard 10 36.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY FOR ALL2. EASY SNIP+0.05L3. TRUST ME+0.5L4. STAR ASCENSION+1.75L5. FINGERS CROSSED+3.25L6. DOUBLE SHOW+3.75L7. LOST CHILD+4.25L8. DENFIELD+4.75L9. BEAT HOLLOW+5.25L10. ISLAND SHINE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FURTHER FORWARD (19.9%) finished 11th — the winner HAPPY FOR ALL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FURTHER FORWARD 19.9% 5.04 11
2 6 HAPPY FOR ALL 9.3% 10.77 1
3 11 EASY SNIP 8.6% 11.57 2
4 1 STAR ASCENSION 8.6% 11.66 4
5 13 DOUBLE SHOW 8.0% 12.53 6
6 3 DENFIELD 7.7% 13.00 8
7 9 TRUST ME 7.4% 13.60 3
8 7 LOST CHILD 7.3% 13.70 7
9 10 FINGERS CROSSED 6.5% 15.49 5
10 12 ISLAND SHINE 4.8% 20.68 10
11 14 FLAMING EAGLE 4.3% 23.17 13
12 5 GOAL ORIENTED 3.0% 33.47 12
13 2 SUPER DOBBIN 2.5% 39.29 14
14 8 BEAT HOLLOW 2.2% 46.05 9
FURTHER FORWARDHAPPY FOR ALL — wonEASY SNIPSTAR ASCENSIONDOUBLE SHOWDENFIELDTRUST MELOST CHILDFINGERS CROSSEDISLAND SHINEFLAMING EAGLEGOAL ORIENTEDSUPER DOBBINBEAT HOLLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 348.5

PLACE

6 85.5

9 24

11 26.5

QUINELLA

6,11 1,198

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 336

6,11 390.5

9,11 106

FORECAST

6,11 2,394

TIERCE

6,11,9 22,777

TRIO

6,9,11 2,866

FIRST 4

1,6,9,11 5,276

QUARTET

6,11,9,1 163,938

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,9/6,9,11 823,288

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 23

A1

3RD DOUBLE

9/6 3,743.5

9/11 541.5