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Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SKYEY SUPREME Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K W Lui 3 6.1 SH
2 0 KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V1/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 11 13.0 SH
3 0 AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly H/P/TT L Currie · J Size 10 23.0 2-1/2
4 0 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB/B1 H Bowman · D J Hall 2 6.0 3
5 0 THE MULTIPLIER B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 6.1 3-3/4
6 0 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 13 2.9 5-3/4
7 0 GREEN LASER Closed strongly B-/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 14 20.0 6-1/4
8 0 PEAK TO PEAK PC/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 1 14.0 7-1/4
9 0 SPANGLE FORTUNE TT K C Leung · K L Man 9 40.0 8
10 0 STARFIRE GEMS H1/P1/TT H Bentley · J Richards 5 46.0 8-1/2
11 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY B/H A Badel · P C Ng 4 28.0 9-1/4
12 0 ALL IS READY B/XB H T Mo · P F Yiu 6 88.0 9-1/2
13 0 ALL JOYFUL B C L Chau · T P Yung 8 21.0 10-3/4
14 0 PRAGMATISM A Hamelin · R Gibson 7 117.0 21-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SKYEY SUPREME, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with KILLER INSTINCT second and AMAZING TEENS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite NICE BIRDIE finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKYEY SUPREME—2. KILLER INSTINCT+0.1L3. AMAZING TEENS+2.5L4. SUN OF MAKFI+3L5. THE MULTIPLIER+3.75L6. NICE BIRDIE+5.75L7. GREEN LASER+6.25L8. PEAK TO PEAK+7.25L9. SPANGLE FORTUNE+8L10. STARFIRE GEMS+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NICE BIRDIE (26.8%) finished 6th — the winner SKYEY SUPREME was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 NICE BIRDIE 26.8% 3.74 6
2 0 SUN OF MAKFI 14.1% 7.07 4
3 0 GREEN LASER 9.6% 10.45 7
4 0 THE MULTIPLIER 9.0% 11.12 5
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME 8.8% 11.36 1
6 0 PEAK TO PEAK 8.4% 11.87 8
7 0 AMAZING TEENS 5.1% 19.77 3
8 0 KILLER INSTINCT 4.6% 21.63 2
9 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY 3.6% 27.87 11
10 0 ALL JOYFUL 3.6% 27.88 13
11 0 STARFIRE GEMS 2.2% 45.89 10
12 0 ALL IS READY 2.0% 51.02 12
13 0 PRAGMATISM 1.2% 85.65 14
14 0 SPANGLE FORTUNE 1.1% 87.80 9
NICE BIRDIESUN OF MAKFIGREEN LASERTHE MULTIPLIERSKYEY SUPREME — wonPEAK TO PEAKAMAZING TEENSKILLER INSTINCTSTARSHIP EIGHTYALL JOYFULSTARFIRE GEMSALL IS READYPRAGMATISMSPANGLE FORTUNE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 61.5

PLACE

2 21

5 56.5

8 43.5

QUINELLA

2,8 462

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 194

2,8 137.5

5,8 314.5

FORECAST

2,8 996

TIERCE

2,8,5 10,915

TRIO

2,5,8 2,045

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 2,207

QUARTET

2,8,5,10 54,741

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/2 1,008

9/8 333.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,11/2,5,8 1,152,915

3 PICK 1

A1 20

A3 —

A2 —