Sha Tin · 2023-01-29 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-01-29 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TORONADO PHANTOM, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by N, with TRILLION WIN second and ROCK YA HEART third. The 2.8 favourite BEAUTY TYCOON finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	TORONADO PHANTOM P-/TT 1.09.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	8	117 lb	38.0	N
2	2	TRILLION WIN B2/TT A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	3	132 lb	10.0	N
3	6	ROCK YA HEART TT Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	1	120 lb	3.5	N
4	3	WINNING METHOD TT C L Chau · C S Shum	C L Chau	C S Shum	7	126 lb	10.0	1-1/4
5	7	BEAUTY TYCOON H/P K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	4	118 lb	2.8	2
6	5	POWER KOEPP E S De Sousa · J Size	S De Sousa	J Size	5	121 lb	7.1	2
7	8	EASON V1/TT M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	2	115 lb	9.8	2-1/2
8	4	ORIENTAL SMOKE B L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	6	127 lb	39.0	4-1/4
9	1	IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	9	125 lb	10.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick BEAUTY TYCOON (30.8%) finished 5th — the winner TORONADO PHANTOM was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	BEAUTY TYCOON	30.8%	3.25	5	2.8
2	6	ROCK YA HEART	29.3%	3.41	3	3.5
3	5	POWER KOEPP	12.9%	7.74	6	7.1
4	8	EASON	5.4%	18.37	7	9.8
5	1	IMA SINGLE MAN	5.3%	18.89	9	10.0
6	2	TRILLION WIN	5.2%	19.14	2	10.0
7	4	ORIENTAL SMOKE	4.8%	20.68	8	39.0
8	3	WINNING METHOD	4.1%	24.17	4	10.0
9	9	TORONADO PHANTOM	2.1%	48.31	1	38.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 387.5

PLACE

2 28

6 15.5

9 70.5

QUINELLA

2,9 1,646.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 68.5

2,9 336

6,9 169.5

FORECAST

9,2 3,385

TIERCE

9,2,6 17,416

TRIO

2,6,9 1,361

FIRST 4

2,3,6,9 2,694

QUARTET

9,2,6,3 127,996

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 101.5

2/9 2,910

3 PICK 1

A3 40

A1 —

A2 —

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