Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DUKE WAI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with COURIER WONDER second and NERVOUS WITNESS third. The 2.9 favourite COURIER WONDER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DUKE WAI V 1.08.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 1 | 7.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | COURIER WONDER H H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 2.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | NERVOUS WITNESS XB/H1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY WITH YOU CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 8.5 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 9.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 5 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | CAMPIONE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 7 | 29.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | MASTER EIGHT CP1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 19.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | REWARDING TOGETHER | 25.2% | 3.97 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | COURIER WONDER | 17.6% | 5.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 13.8% | 7.24 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 11.9% | 8.41 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 9.5% | 10.47 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | CAMPIONE | 9.0% | 11.10 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | DUKE WAI | 8.3% | 12.10 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | MASTER EIGHT | 4.7% | 21.23 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 79
PLACE
1 13.5
2 20.5
5 13.5
QUINELLA
1,2 93
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 36.5
1,5 24.5
2,5 38
FORECAST
2,1 230
TIERCE
2,1,5 790
TRIO
1,2,5 92
FIRST 4
1,2,5,8 131
QUARTET
2,1,5,8 3,456
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/1 30.5
3/2 371
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 36.5